This analysis was conducted on the basis of Ukraine’s 2021 updated nationally determined contribution and before the brutal and unwarranted Russian military invasion in the country.
We are publishing it to show that the Ukrainian government had plans in place to facilitate a transition to a low carbon economy.
Once peace is restored, in addition to very large reconstruction and humanitarian needs, Ukraine will need international support to build a climate-resilient society and economy in line with the Paris Agreement.
Power sector in 2030
In its Energy Strategy to 2035, Ukraine forecasts a continued use of fossil fuels in the power sector well beyond 2030, constituting 34% and 32% of total power generation in 2030 and 2035 respectively.10 This is in strong contrast to fossil fuel use shown in 1.5°C compatible scenarios: a maximum of 16% of generation in 2030, with some scenarios showing a total phase out of coal by 2030 and natural gas by 2036-2040. A failure to implement a 1.5°C compatible 2030 coal phase out policy, risks the creation of stranded assets and expensive electricity supply.
Power sector pathways that are 1.5°C compatible stipulate a carbon emissions intensity of just 40-120 gCO₂/kWh in 2030, a reduction of 61-87% below 2017 levels. All 1.5°C compatible scenarios show that Ukraine can achieve this with negligible levels of negative emissions technologies.
The Energy Strategy to 2035 is currently being revised and was set to be resubmitted for approval in Q2 2021, but has yet to be released. This is an ideal opportunity to entrench a higher degree of ambition and a faster transition in the power sector. A 1.5°C compatible level of renewable energy generation for Ukraine in 2030 would be at least 67%, compared to the 8% seen in 2018.
Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
As part of its updated NDC, Ukraine released an accompanying modelling report which outlines the technical feasibility of a 58% share of renewable energy in total electricity generation by 2050.14
This does not represent an official target and falls considerably short of the lower end of Ukraine’s 1.5°C compatible renewable energy share range in 2050 of 89-99%, which is derived from scenarios that demonstrate technically feasible pathways. The same modelling released alongside its updated NDC showed that under its ‘Climate Neutral Economy’ scenario, carbon-free power, which includes nuclear power, could reach 99% by 2050.14
Ukraine’s substantial nuclear capacity means that the carbon intensity of its power sector could reach close to zero by 2030 without very high levels of renewable generation. In light of this, Ukraine’s 1.5°C compatible power sector trajectory sees the power sector reach zero emissions around 2035.
1 Government of Ukraine. 2020 Common Reporting Format (CRF) Table. (2020).
22 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.
Ukraineʼs power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
Unit
−200−100010020019902010203020502070
Historical emissions
High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
SSP1 High CDR reliance
100%RE
Low energy demand
1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Ukraine
Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Decarbonised power sector by
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
340
50 to 120
−60 to 0
−540 to −30
2037 to 2040
Relative to reference year in %
−85 to −66%
−118 to −100%
−259 to −109%
Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Year of phase-out
Share of unabated coal
Percent
30
0 to 1
0
0
2029
Share of unabated gas
Percent
8
6
0 to 1
0
2038 to 2044
Share of renewable energy
Percent
8
62 to 68
85 to 88
89 to 100
Share of unabated fossil fuel
Percent
38
11 to 17
0 to 3
0
Investments
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time. See the power section for capacities deployment under the various models.
Ukraineʼs renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
20302040205020601015
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Ukraine to be on the order of USD 3 to 19 billion by 2030 and 2 to 15 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘High CDR’ scenario, which shows comparatively lower annual investments into renewables, has lower levels of electrification and at the global level relies more on carbon capture and storage and negative emissions technologies – which themselves can require high up-front costs and face sustainability constraints.