This analysis was conducted on the basis of Ukraine’s 2021 updated nationally determined contribution and before the brutal and unwarranted Russian military invasion in the country.
We are publishing it to show that the Ukrainian government had plans in place to facilitate a transition to a low carbon economy.
Once peace is restored, in addition to very large reconstruction and humanitarian needs, Ukraine will need international support to build a climate-resilient society and economy in line with the Paris Agreement.
The source of over a fifth of Ukraine’s total GHG emissions in 2019, the industry sector has seen falling emissions since the mid 2000’s. Process emissions have come to make up a far greater share of total industry emissions over the last three decades, roughly halving since 1990, while energy-related emissions have fallen by 83%. This implies that heavy industries like steel and cement production have fared relatively better than others like manufacturing and construction, though still declining sharply.
Despite these steep declines, illustrative 1.5°C pathways show both energy and process emissions could fall further to 2030, by at least 42% and 38% below 2017 levels respectively (92% and 73% below 1990 levels respectively).
Ukraine’s carbon tax, one of the lowest carbon tax in the world at EUR 0.33/tCO₂, has proven virtually ineffective in reducing emissions since it began in 2011. An emissions trading scheme (ETS) is scheduled to come into effect in 2025 that would cover heavy industry, but an emissions cap is only scheduled to be set once the new emissions reporting and verification scheme, established in 2021, can verify the emissions baseline. Ensuring this ETS will lead to significant emission reductions from industry is key to aligning the sector’s emissions with the 1.5°C illustrative pathways shown.