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Ukraine Sectors

What is Ukraineʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

This analysis was conducted on the basis of Ukraine’s 2021 updated nationally determined contribution and before the brutal and unwarranted Russian military invasion in the country.

We are publishing it to show that the Ukrainian government had plans in place to facilitate a transition to a low carbon economy.

Once peace is restored, in addition to very large reconstruction and humanitarian needs, Ukraine will need international support to build a climate-resilient society and economy in line with the Paris Agreement.

The source of over a fifth of Ukraine’s total GHG emissions in 2019, the industry sector has seen falling emissions since the mid 2000’s.16 Process emissions have come to make up a far greater share of total industry emissions over the last three decades, roughly halving since 1990, while energy-related emissions have fallen by 83%. This implies that heavy industries like steel and cement production have fared relatively better than others like manufacturing and construction, though still declining sharply.

Despite these steep declines, illustrative 1.5°C pathways show both energy and process emissions could fall further to 2030, by at least 42% and 38% below 2017 levels respectively (92% and 73% below 1990 levels respectively).

Ukraine’s carbon tax, one of the lowest carbon tax in the world at EUR 0.33/tCO₂, has proven virtually ineffective in reducing emissions since it began in 2011.17 An emissions trading scheme (ETS) is scheduled to come into effect in 2025 that would cover heavy industry, but an emissions cap is only scheduled to be set once the new emissions reporting and verification scheme, established in 2021, can verify the emissions baseline.18 Ensuring this ETS will lead to significant emission reductions from industry is key to aligning the sector’s emissions with the 1.5°C illustrative pathways shown.

1 Government of Ukraine. 2020 Common Reporting Format (CRF) Table. (2020).

2 Prokip, A. The Energy Crisis in Ukraine: Predicted, But Still a Surprise. Focus Ukraine: A blog of the Kennan Institute. (2020).

3 Kinstellar. Ukraine introduces long-awaited changes to incentives for renewable energy. Lexology. (2020).

4 Mykhailenko, O. et al. Quarterly Monitoring Report on the Implementation of Ukraine’s Energy Action Plan. (2019).

5 Government of Ukraine. Ukraine’s energy strategy for the period up to 2035. (2017).

6 Climate Action Tracker. Ukraine | Climate Target Update Tracker.

7 Government of Ukraine. Intended Nationally Determined Contribution of Ukraine to a New Global Climate Agreement. (2015).

8 Government of Ukraine. Ukraine will intensify its participation in the global fight against climate change – President at the International Climate Ambition Summit. (2020).

9 Government of Ukraine. Ukraine. 2020 National Inventory Report (NIR). (2020).

10 Government of Ukraine. On approval of the National Transport Strategy of Ukraine for the period up to 2030. (2018).

11 Government of Ukraine. Green Energy Transition of Ukraine until 2050. (2020).

12 Climate Action Tracker. Ukraine | June 2020 Update. (2020).

13 Global Forest Watch. Ukraine Deforestation Rates & Statistics | GFW. (2020).

14 IEF. Support to the Government of Ukraine on updating its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) -Report 3/ Modelling Report. (2021).

15 Ministry of Energy and Environmental Protection Ukraine. КОНЦЕПЦІЯ ЕНЕРГЕТИЧНОГО УКРАЇНИ (Ukraine Green Deal). (2020).

16 Government of Ukraine. Ukraine – Common Reporting Format (CRF) Table. (2021).

17 Breunig, J. A revision of Ukraine’s Carbon Tax. (2020).

18 GIZ. Successful climate mitigation through emissions trading. (2021).

19 Ministry of Energy and Environmental Protection Ukraine. Analytical Review of the Updated Nationally Determined Contribution of Ukraine to the Paris Agreement. (2021). Report_ Project_EN.PDF

20 Government of Ukraine. On approval of the National Transport Strategy of Ukraine for the period up to 2030. (2018).

21 UkraineInvest. Electric cars market growth: how Ukraine can benefit. (2020).

22 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.

Ukraineʼs energy mix in the industry sector

petajoule per year

Scaling
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
20192030204020501 0001 500
SSP1 High CDR reliance
20192030204020501 0001 500
Low Energy Demand
20192030204020501 0001 500
High Energy Demand - Low CDR reliance
20192030204020501 0001 500
  • Oil and e-fuels
  • Coal
  • Natural gas
  • Biomass
  • Biofuel
  • Biogas
  • Hydrogen
  • Electricity
  • Heat

Ukraineʼs industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demands)

MtCO₂/yr

Unit
05010015020019902010203020502070
  • Historical emissions
  • Low Energy Demand
  • SSP1 Low CDR reliance
  • SSP1 High CDR reliance
  • High Energy Demand - Low CDR reliance

Ukraineʼs GHG emissions from industrial processes

MtCO₂e/yr

2040608010012019902010203020502070
  • SSP1 Low CDR reliance
  • SSP1 High CDR reliance
  • Low Energy Demand
  • High Energy Demand - Low CDR reliance
  • Historical emissions

1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks

Direct CO₂ emissions and direct electrification rates from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Ukraine

Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Decarbonised industry sector by
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
38
9 to 16
4 to 5
1
2040
Relative to reference year in %
−76 to −59%
−88 to −87%
−96%
Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Share of electricity
Percent
26
36 to 39
49 to 51
44 to 61
Share of electricity, hydrogren and biomass
Percent
26
40 to 41
55 to 62
52 to 66

Footnotes