About the explorer

About the project

The Paris Agreement saw 184 governments put forward 2030 pledges and targets to begin to cut carbon emissions to limit warming to the agreed goal of 1.5°C (called Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs). These targets are not yet sufficient to reach this goal. At the moment they put the world on a path to approximately 2.4°C of warming.

National governments will need to put forward more ambitious emission reduction targets in order to meet the urgent need to align global trajectories with the Paris Agreement. For many countries meeting these domestic targets will require international support. 

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)‘s special report on Global Warming of 1.5°C showed not only why governments must act urgently to prevent higher levels of warming, but also how emissions can be brought to net zero by mid-century and stay within the small remaining carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5°C.

In this project, Climate Analytics uses IPCC 1.5°C compatible pathways in combination with more recent lines of scientific evidence to show how a selection of 64 countries across all regions and the development spectrum can align their decarbonisation trajectories with the Paris Agreement, and live up to their promises to prevent dangerous climate change.

Funding Sources

The IKEA Foundation is the philanthropic arm of INGKA Foundation, the owner of the IKEA Group of companies. It aims to improve opportunities for children and youth in some of the world’s poorest communities by funding holistic, long-term programmes that can create substantial, lasting change. The IKEA Foundation works with strong strategic partners applying innovative approaches to achieve large-scale results in four fundamental areas of a child’s life: a place to call home; a healthy start in life; a quality education; and a sustainable family income, while helping these communities fight and cope with climate change.

Main contributors

The 1.5°C national pathways explorer is a project developed by Climate Analytics.

Project co-leads: Claire Fyson and Deborah Ramalope

Modelling: Lara Welder (lead), Marie-Charlotte Geffray (overall pipeline, downscaling), Jonas Hörsch (global pathways, algorithmic downscaling, overall pipeline), Claire Fyson and Firza Riany (land use and forestry pathways), Tina Aboumahboub (investments in power sector)

Country policy analysis: Marie-Camille Attard (lead), Andrzej Ancygier, Kim Coetzee, Nandini Das, Winnie Khaemba, Victor Maxwell, Sneha Pandey, Eoin Quill, Carley Reynolds, Arunima Sircar, Samita Sharma. Reviewers: Claire Stockwell, Jan Sindt, Paolo Cozzi, Deborah Ramalope, Claire Fyson.

SDGs analysis: Anne Zimmer (lead), Charlotte Plinke, Jonas Hörsch, Gaurav Ganti, Roufail Mikhaiel, Shalom Udechukwu

Strategy and guidance: Bill Hare, Michiel Schaeffer, Matthew Gidden

Outreach and communications: Holly Simpkin, Paul Smith

Project management: Clare Waldmann

Design and web development: Ingo Tegeder and Flavio Gortana

Technical and research support: Olivia Waterton

Previous contributors: Anna Chapman, Yvonne Deng, Sarah Heck, Ursula Fuentes Hutfilter, Chelsea Jones, Jae Kim, Sharna Nolan, Yann Robiou du Pont, Himalaya Bir Shrestha, Raghu Vyas, Ryan Wilson.

Co-contributors

Development and update of additional global 1.5°C compatible pathway variants: IMAGE-team at Universiteit Utrecht, Faculty of Geosciences, Department of Sustainable Development, with additional help from PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank the research teams who have made available the underlying data from global least-cost pathways used in this analysis, namely the following modelling teams: AIM, REMIND, MESSAGE and the EWG LUT.

We would like to thank the national stakeholders and civil society organisations for their input, reviews and feedback in the development of the indicators and country level analysis.

Sharing license

The 1.5°C National Pathways Explorer content, including all text, figures and data, is made available under a Creative Commons CC BY-NC 4.0 license, which allows others to distribute, adapt, and build upon the work non-commercially, so long as they cite and credit the original version.

How to cite

To acknowledge or cite this work:

How to cite the tool and/or country specific analysis :

Climate Analytics, 2022. 1.5°C National Pathways Explorer. Available at: https://1p5ndc-pathways.climateanalytics.org/

How to cite the methodology :

Emissions benchmarks :

Gidden, M. et al. Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century. _Geosci._ Model Dev. *12*, 1443–1475 (2019).

Sectoral benchmarks :

Welder, L., Hörsch, J., Gidden, M., Schaeffer, M. & Hare, B. 1.5°C National Pathways Explorer - Methodology. http://1p5ndc-pathways.climateanalytics.org/about/methodology/ (2022).

Sferra, Fabio, Mario Krapp, Niklas Roming, Michiel Schaeffer, Aman Malik, Bill Hare, and Robert Brecha. 2019b. “Towards Optimal 1.5° and 2 °C Emission Pathways for Individual Countries: A Finland Case Study.” Energy Policy 133.

Investments requirements in the power sector:

Aboumahboub, T., Hörsch, J., Welder, L., Gidden, M., Schaeffer, M. & Hare, B. 1.5°C National Pathways Explorer - Investments requirements in the Power Sector. https://1p5ndc-pathways.climateanalytics.org/ (2022).

Land-use and forestry 1.5°C compatible benchmarks:

Riany, F., Fyson, C., Hörsch, J., Welder, L., Gidden, M., Schaeffer, M. & Hare, B. 1.5°C National Pathways Explorer - 1.5°C compabitle benchmarks for the Land-Use and Forestry Sector. https://1p5ndc-pathways.climateanalytics.org/ (2022).

Co-benefits analysis in the power sector:

Zimmer, A., Plinke, C., Hörsch, J., Ganti, G., Mikhaiel, R., Udechukwu, S. 1.5°C National Pathways Explorer - Co-benefits analysis in the Power Sector: Employments impacts of replacing coal and Air quality and health benefits from phasing out coal. https://1p5ndc-pathways.climateanalytics.org/ (2022).

About Climate Analytics

Climate Analytics is a non-profit climate science and policy institute based in Berlin, Germany with offices in New York, USA, Lomé, Togo and Perth, Australia. It seeks to empower those most vulnerable – Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Countries – to use the best science and analysis available in the international climate negotiations, as well as in developing policies and institutional capacity to adapt to climate change. Climate Analytics undertakes extensive research on the 1.5°C temperature limit in the Paris Agreement, evaluates progress on climate action and shows governments how they can act on their policies to keep global warming to this limit.

climateanalytics.org