This analysis was conducted on the basis of Ukraine’s 2021 updated nationally determined contribution and before the brutal and unwarranted Russian military invasion in the country.
We are publishing it to show that the Ukrainian government had plans in place to facilitate a transition to a low carbon economy.
Once peace is restored, in addition to very large reconstruction and humanitarian needs, Ukraine will need international support to build a climate-resilient society and economy in line with the Paris Agreement.
Ukraine updated its NDC in July 2021, strengthening it significantly from at least a 40% reduction below 1990 levels (41% excluding LULUCF emissions) to a 65% reduction below 1990 levels (66% excluding LULUCF).
This still falls considerably short of the 85% reduction by 2030 needed to be aligned with the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement.
Ukraine would require additional policies to meet its new target, let alone a 1.5°C compatible target.
Ukraine’s updated NDC includes a commitment to achieve net zero emissions by 2060.
Our analysis shows that GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) need to be reduced by 92-97% below 1990 levels by 2050 or reach levels 30-74 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF. Remaining emissions will need to be balanced by negative emissions from the land sector or other carbon dioxide removal approaches. However, recent trends show Ukraine’s forestry emissions are on the cusp of becoming a net source of emissions, which will need to be reversed to align with a 1.5°C compatible pathway.
The draft Green Energy Transition Until 2050 also specifies that a 70% share of renewable energy in the power sector is technically feasible, however there are currently no such long-term targets adopted.