In December 2020, Ukraine announced a draft plan for a considerable update to its previous NDC of at least a 40% reduction below 1990 levels (41% excluding LULUCF emissions), proposing it be strengthened to a 58-64% reduction below 1990 levels (59-65% excluding LULUCF).
This still falls considerably short of the 85% reduction by 2030 to be aligned with the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement.
Ukraine is on track to meet its current weak NDC, but would require additional policies to meet even the lower end of its proposed new target, let alone a 1.5°C compatible target.
Ukraine’s recently released draft Green Energy Transition until 2050 outlines a commitment to transition to a ‘climate neutral’ economy by 2070.
Our analysis shows that GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) need to be reduced by 92-97% below 1990 levels by 2050 or reach levels 30-74 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF. Remaining emissions will need to be balanced by negative emissions from the land sector or other carbon dioxide removal approaches. However, recent trends show Ukraine’s forestry emissions are on the cusp of becoming a net source of emissions, which will need to be reversed to align with a 1.5°C compatible pathway.
The draft Green Energy Transition Until 2050 also specifies that a 70% share of renewable energy in the power sector is technically feasible, however there are currently no such long-term targets adopted.