This analysis was conducted on the basis of Ukraine’s 2021 updated nationally determined contribution and before the brutal and unwarranted Russian military invasion in the country.
We are publishing it to show that the Ukrainian government had plans in place to facilitate a transition to a low carbon economy.
Once peace is restored, in addition to very large reconstruction and humanitarian needs, Ukraine will need international support to build a climate-resilient society and economy in line with the Paris Agreement.
Ukraine’s building stock is relatively energy inefficient, ranging from 250-450 kWh/m2.14 Recent efforts to improve on this have centred on funds and loans to implement upgrades to residential buildings, but the scale of funding is not yet sufficient to achieve the wholesale changes necessary.
Several priority areas have been identified by the Ukrainian government, namely: modernisation of the building stock, replacement of inefficient boilers and other fossil fuel heating systems, and a nationwide building reconstruction effort.15 To ensure Ukraine is aligned with the illustrative 1.5°C pathways, direct building emissions should decline to around one fifth of their 1990 levels by 2030, and reach zero between 2040 and 2050.
1 Government of Ukraine. 2020 Common Reporting Format (CRF) Table. (2020).
2 Prokip, A. The Energy Crisis in Ukraine: Predicted, But Still a Surprise. Focus Ukraine: A blog of the Kennan Institute. (2020).
3 Kinstellar. Ukraine introduces long-awaited changes to incentives for renewable energy. Lexology. (2020).
4 Mykhailenko, O. et al. Quarterly Monitoring Report on the Implementation of Ukraine’s Energy Action Plan. (2019).
5 Government of Ukraine. Ukraine’s energy strategy for the period up to 2035. (2017).
6 Climate Action Tracker. Ukraine | Climate Target Update Tracker.
7 Government of Ukraine. Intended Nationally Determined Contribution of Ukraine to a New Global Climate Agreement. (2015).
8 Government of Ukraine. Ukraine will intensify its participation in the global fight against climate change – President at the International Climate Ambition Summit. (2020).
9 Government of Ukraine. Ukraine. 2020 National Inventory Report (NIR). (2020).
10 Government of Ukraine. On approval of the National Transport Strategy of Ukraine for the period up to 2030. (2018).
11 Government of Ukraine. Green Energy Transition of Ukraine until 2050. (2020).
12 Climate Action Tracker. Ukraine | June 2020 Update. (2020).
13 Global Forest Watch. Ukraine Deforestation Rates & Statistics | GFW. (2020).
14 IEF. Support to the Government of Ukraine on updating its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) -Report 3/ Modelling Report. (2021).
15 Ministry of Energy and Environmental Protection Ukraine. КОНЦЕПЦІЯ ЕНЕРГЕТИЧНОГО УКРАЇНИ (Ukraine Green Deal). (2020).
16 Government of Ukraine. Ukraine – Common Reporting Format (CRF) Table. (2021).
17 Breunig, J. A revision of Ukraine’s Carbon Tax. (2020).
18 GIZ. Successful climate mitigation through emissions trading. (2021).
19 Ministry of Energy and Environmental Protection Ukraine. Analytical Review of the Updated Nationally Determined Contribution of Ukraine to the Paris Agreement. (2021). Report_ Project_EN.PDF
20 Government of Ukraine. On approval of the National Transport Strategy of Ukraine for the period up to 2030. (2018).
21 UkraineInvest. Electric cars market growth: how Ukraine can benefit. (2020).
22 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.
Ukraineʼs energy mix in the buildings sector
petajoule per year
- Natural gas
- Coal
- Oil and e-fuels
- Biofuel
- Biogas
- Biomass
- Hydrogen
- Electricity
- Heat
Ukraineʼs buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
- Historical emissions
- SSP1 High CDR reliance
- SSP1 Low CDR reliance
- High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
- Low energy demand
1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and biomass in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Ukraine
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Decarbonised buildings sector by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Direct CO₂ emissions MtCO₂/yr | 21 | 5 to 6 | 1 to 2 | 0 to 1 | 2032 to 2033 |
Relative to reference year in % | −77 to −74% | −97 to −90% | −99 to −96% |
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Share of electricity Percent | 26 | 50 to 61 | 55 to 84 | 56 to 93 |
Share of heat Percent | 18 | 23 to 48 | 32 to 51 | 37 to 53 |
Share of hydrogen Percent | 0 | 0 to 1 | 1 | 1 to 2 |