Power sector in 2030
In 2019, the power sector accounted for 29% of total greenhouse gas emissions.4 Due to its large share of overall emissions, a rapid decarbonisation of this sector is essential for Czechia to meet its emissions reduction targets.
According to 1.5°C compatible scenarios, the emissions intensity of the Czech power sector should decrease from 420 gCO₂/kWh in 2019 to 40-50 gCO₂/kWh by 2030. This can be achieved through a rapid phasing out of coal and increasing the share of renewables in the sector to 49-61% by this date. Considering Czechia’s current target of a 17% share of renewables in electricity by 2030, the government is a long way off bringing the power sector in line with a 1.5°C trajectory.
Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
1.5°C compatible scenarios indicate that coal needs to be phased out by 2029 and fossil gas before 2040 to ensure a totally decarbonised power sector by this date. Decarbonisation could be achieved by a rapid uptake of renewables in power generation. However, the government’s lack of support for renewables, as well as its plan to increase the share of fossil gas, means that decarbonisation will not be achieved under planned policies.2
1 European Environment Agency. EEA greenhouse gases – data viewer. 2021.
2 Government of Czech Republic. National Energy and Climate Plan of the Czech Republic. 2019.
3 IEA. World Energy Balances 2020. 2020.
4 Government of Czechia. Czechia.2021 Common Reporting Format (CRF) Table. 2021.
5 Mahe, S. France, Czech Republic and others push for nuclear in EU’s green investment rules. Reuters. 2021.
6 International Energy Agency (IEA). Czech Republic 2021: Energy Policy Review. 2021.
7 Gilbert, A., Sovacool, B. K., Johnstone, P. & Stirling, A. Cost overruns and financial risk in the construction of nuclear power reactors: A critical appraisal. Energy Policy 102, 644–649. 2017.
8 Eash-Gates, P. et al. Sources of Cost Overrun in Nuclear Power Plant Construction Call for a New Approach to Engineering Design. Joule 4, 2348–2373. 2020.
9 Ministry of the Environment of the Czech Republic. Climate Protection Policy of the Czech Republic: Executive Summary 2017. 2017.
10 European Commission. Assessment of the final national energy and climate plan of Czechia. 2020.
11 Ember. Vision or division?: what do National Energy and Climate Plans tell us about the EU power sector in 2030? 2020.
12 Government of Czech Republic. The Czech Republic’s Hydrogen Strategy. 2021.
13 McKinsey & Company. Pathways to decarbonize the Czech Republic: Carbon-neutral Czech Republic 2050. 2020.
14 Ponikelska, L. Czech Leader Demands Big Changes to EU Green Deal Over Cars. Bloomberg. 2021.
Czech Republicʼs power mix
terawatt-hour per year
- Renewables incl. biomass
- Unabated fossil
- Nuclear and/or fossil with CCS
- Negative emissions technologies via BECCS
Czech Republicʼs power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
- Historical emissions
- High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
- SSP1 Low CDR reliance
- SSP1 High CDR reliance
- 100%RE
- Low energy demand
1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Czech Republic
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Decarbonised power sector by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Carbon intensity of power gCO₂/kWh | 420 | 40 to 50 | 0 | −470 to −10 | 2037 to 2039 |
Relative to reference year in % | −90 to −88% | −100% | −211 to −102% |
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Year of phase-out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Share of unabated coal Percent | 46 | 0 to 2 | 0 | 0 | 2029 |
Share of unabated gas Percent | 7 | 5 to 6 | 0 | 0 | 2037 to 2040 |
Share of renewable energy Percent | 12 | 49 to 61 | 67 to 87 | 80 to 100 | |
Share of unabated fossil fuel Percent | 53 | 9 to 13 | 0 | 0 |
Investments
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time compared with a current policy scenario. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time. See the power section for capacities deployment under the various models.
Czech Republicʼs renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Czech Republic to be on the order of USD 1 to 11 billion by 2030 and 1 to 13 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors and/or growing energy demand and expansion of electricity access. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the later can require high up-front investments.