Viet Nam updated its NDC in September 2020, pledging a 9% (unconditional) to 27% (conditional) reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions below business-as-usual (BAU) levels by 2030. Viet Nam’s conditional target is equivalent to around 748 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF, or a 100% increase above 2015 emission levels – higher than Viet Nam’s current policy pathway.
A 1.5°C compatible pathway would see emissions immediately peak and decline to 187-242 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030, 35-50% below 2015 levels.
Under the Paris Agreement, international support, including finance, technology transfer and capacity building will be needed for Viet Nam to close the emissions gap between its fair share and its domestic emissions pathway.
Viet Nam committed to net zero emissions by 2050 at COP26. Our projections show it could reduce nearly 100% of its CO₂ emissions from 2015 levels by 2050, and 73-80% of its total GHG emissions, excluding the land sector (LULUCF). On the road to net zero GHG, Viet Nam will need to balance its remaining emissions through LULUCF sinks, expanding its carbon sink.
The largest share of emissions reductions will take place in the energy sector, as this sector is responsible for the majority of emissions.
Viet Nam would need to implement further policies to reduce emissions from the transport sector to reduce dependence on oil and transition to electric vehicles, as well as support a modal switch to zero emissions transport. The industry sector also requires substantial decarbonisation efforts as emissions have increased 129% over the past decade.
In all pathways, emissions in the agriculture and waste sectors will decline but cannot be fully eliminated. Ambitious mitigation policies will be required in these sectors, in addition to carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies in other sectors, to offset the remaining emissions and ensure net zero GHGs can be reached.