Emissions from the building sector have increased by 84% in the past 10 years. There was a large increase in direct CO₂ emissions of the buildings sector energy demand in 2015, resulting from an increase in coal consumption.24 All 1.5°C scenarios show an immediate decline in emissions.
In 2019, the energy demand in this sector was mostly met with electricity (75%), and fossil fuels (20%, with coal 5% and oil 15%), and biomass (5%). The electricity mix was however in 2019 made of 69% of fossil fuels (see the power section for more details).
Viet Nam could reach ´zero building sector emissions by 2037-2049. The “low energy demand” scenario reaches full decarbonisation rapidly. In this scenario, the electricity share in the building sector energy demand reaches 90% share by 2030, and 96% by 2050. The building sector would be largely decarbonised if it underwent high rates of electrification, in combination with high renewable energy penetration in the power sector. (i.e. meeting the benchmarks of 93-95% renewable power by 2030 and a decarbonised power sector by 2035/6). Green hydrogen could also play a part in the building sector energy mix with a share of up to 3% in 2030, 2040, and 2050, following 1.5°C pathways.
To decarbonise the building sector, Viet Nam would need to phase out fossil fuels and replace wood and coal stoves and heating/cooling with energy efficient electric appliances.
1 Global Gas Plant Tracker. Global Gas Plant Tracker – Global Energy Monitor. (2021).
2 Climate Action Tracker. Viet Nam. November 2020 update. Climate Action Tracker. (2020).
3 Chapman, A., Urmee, T., Shem, C. & Fuentes, U. Energy transition to renewable energies. Opportunities for Australian cooperation with Vietnam. (2019).
4 IEA. Data & Statistics. International energy Agency, (2020).
5 MNRE. National Communication of Vietnam, The Third. (2019).
6 Viet Nam Government. Viet Nam Third Biennial Updated Report. (2020).
7 Phan Anh. Vietnam pledges to phase out coal power. VnExpress International, (2021).
8 UN Climate Change Conference (COP26). Global Coal to Clean Power Transition Statement. (2021).
9 Phạm Minh Chính. Viet Nam will take stronger measures to reduce greenhouse gas emission: PM . Viet Nam News. (2021).
10 Viet Nam Government. Updated Nationally Determined Contribution. (2020).
11 Viet Nam Government. Approving the Viet Nam’s Renewable Energy Development Strategy up to 2030 with an outlook to 2050.(2015).
12 Viet Nam Government. Resolution 55-NQ/TW – On Orientations of the Viet Nam’s National Energy Development Strategy to 2030 and outlook to 2045. (2020).
13 MOIT. Vietnam National Energy Efficiency Program 2019-2030. (2019).
14 Viet Nam Government. Approval of the Revised National Power Development Master Plan for the 2011-2020 Period with the Vision to 2030 (translated by GIZ). (2016).
15 UN Climate Change Conference 2021. Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forests and Land Use – UN Climate Change Conference (COP26). (2021).
16 Climate Action Tracker. Viet Nam can easily achieve its new target, but it does now cover whole economy and is clearer. Climate Action Tracker. (2020).
17 IEA. Vietnam. International Energy Agency. (2021).
18 MDI. Vietnam Energy Update Report 2020. (2020).
19 Allens. Renewables in Vietnam, Opportunities for Investment. (2020).
20 Vu, T. Vietnam’s extraordinary rooftop solar success deals another blow to the remaining coal pipeline. IEEFA. (2021).
21 Viet Nam Government. Decision on mechanisms to promote the development of solar power projects in Viet Nam. (2020).
22 Baker McKenzie. Vietnam: October 2021 updates to the Draft PDP8. (2021).
23 Viet Nam Government. Draft Power Development Plan 8 (third draft, February 2021). (2021).
24 IEA. Viet Nam. International Energy Agency. (2021).
25 Energy Voice. Enterprize eyes green hydrogen’s potential to ‘supercharge’ Vietnam. Energy Voice. (2021).
26 Phi Nhat. Support policies for EVs mapped out to encourage Vietnamese private sector’s participation. Hanoi Times. (2021).
27 VietnamNet. Vietnam expects new wave of electric vehicles in 2022. VietnamNet. (2022).
28 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.
29 October 2021 draft Power Development Plan 8.
Viet Namʼs energy mix in the buildings sector
petajoule per year
- Natural gas
- Coal
- Oil and e-fuels
- Biofuel
- Biogas
- Biomass
- Hydrogen
- Electricity
- Heat
Viet Namʼs buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
- Historical emissions
- SSP1 High CDR reliance
- SSP1 Low CDR reliance
- High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
- Low energy demand
1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and biomass in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Viet Nam
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Decarbonised buildings sector by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Direct CO₂ emissions MtCO₂/yr | 6 | 1 to 3 | 0 to 2 | 0 to 1 | 2029 to 2033 |
Relative to reference year in % | −87 to −53% | −100 to −75% | −100 to −90% |
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Share of electricity Percent | 75 | 88 to 94 | 95 to 96 | 95 to 98 |
Share of heat Percent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Share of hydrogen Percent | 0 | 1 to 3 | 3 | 3 |