Industrial process emissions have grown 172% over the past decade (2009 to 2019) and the sector is responsible for 12% of Viet Nam’s total emissions (excluding LULUCF). Emissions in this sector are from the production of cement (80%), iron and steel (8%), lime (8%) and ammonia (3%).6
Industry energy use emissions are responsible for 15% of the country total GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF). Direct CO₂ emissions of energy demand have fluctuated, and have been rising since 2016 reaching 73 MtCO₂ in 2019. Paris Agreement compatible benchmarks indicate this could increase by 66-87% in 2030 and by 93-99% in 2050.
Under the “high energy demand low CDR reliance 1.5°C scenario”, emissions (and emissions intensity) of industry energy demand peak in 2025, and rapidly decline afterwards, while in all other 1.5°C scenarios, emissions decline immediately .
In 2019, electricity (30%) and biomass (14%) represented 44% share of the industry sector’s energy demand while coal accounted for 48% of the energy mix. To be 1.5°C compatible, electricity share would need to increase to 45-46% by 2030, 59-63% by 2040 and 70-78% by 2050. Electrification of industrial processes, along with a high percentage share of a renewable energy in the power sector, would support the decarbonisation of this sector. Electricity, hydrogen and biomass could increase to 66-69% in 2030 and 82-96% in 2050 following a 1.5°C pathway.
Hydrogen, which plays a minor role in the pathways, would need to be “green” (produced from renewable energy) to decarbonise the sector. For example, green hydrogen can produce low/zero carbon ammonia and steel. A wind developer Enterprize and the Vietnamese Institute of Energy are conducting a study to assess green hydrogen’s potential in Viet Nam. Enterprize is exploring possibilities to develop 3.4 GW wind farm off the cost of Bin Thuan province, with the potential for 330,000 t/yr of green hydrogen produced for export or domestic use.25
The Viet Nam National Energy Efficiency Policy (VNEEP3 2019-2030) outlines energy efficiency targets for industry, separated by sub-sector such as reducing average energy consumption by 10% in the chemical industry.13 Viet Nam could improve on this policy by aligning the policy with the 1.5°C benchmarks.
3 Chapman, A., Urmee, T., Shem, C. & Fuentes, U. Energy transition to renewable energies. Opportunities for Australian cooperation with Vietnam. (2019).
12 Viet Nam Government. Resolution 55-NQ/TW – On Orientations of the Viet Nam’s National Energy Development Strategy to 2030 and outlook to 2045. (2020).
28 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.
Viet Namʼs industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Unit
02040608010019902010203020502070
Historical emissions
SSP1 High CDR reliance
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
Low energy demand
Viet Namʼs GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
02040608019902010203020502070
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
SSP1 High CDR reliance
Low energy demand
High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
Historical emissions
1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Viet Nam