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Viet Nam Sectors

What is Viet Namʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Industrial process emissions have grown 172% over the past decade (2009 to 2019) and the sector is responsible for 12% of Viet Nam’s total emissions (excluding LULUCF). Emissions in this sector are from the production of cement (80%), iron and steel (8%), lime (8%) and ammonia (3%).6

Industry energy use emissions are responsible for 15% of the country total GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF). Direct CO₂ emissions of energy demand have fluctuated, and have been rising since 2016 reaching 73 MtCO₂ in 2019. Paris Agreement compatible benchmarks indicate this could increase by 66-87% in 2030 and by 93-99% in 2050.

Under the “high energy demand low CDR reliance 1.5°C scenario”, emissions (and emissions intensity) of industry energy demand peak in 2025, and rapidly decline afterwards, while in all other 1.5°C scenarios, emissions decline immediately .

In 2019, electricity (30%) and biomass (14%) represented 44% share of the industry sector’s energy demand while coal accounted for 48% of the energy mix. To be 1.5°C compatible, electricity share would need to increase to 45-46% by 2030, 59-63% by 2040 and 70-78% by 2050. Electrification of industrial processes, along with a high percentage share of a renewable energy in the power sector, would support the decarbonisation of this sector. Electricity, hydrogen and biomass could increase to 66-69% in 2030 and 82-96% in 2050 following a 1.5°C pathway.

Hydrogen, which plays a minor role in the pathways, would need to be “green” (produced from renewable energy) to decarbonise the sector. For example, green hydrogen can produce low/zero carbon ammonia and steel. A wind developer Enterprize and the Vietnamese Institute of Energy are conducting a study to assess green hydrogen’s potential in Viet Nam. Enterprize is exploring possibilities to develop 3.4 GW wind farm off the cost of Bin Thuan province, with the potential for 330,000 t/yr of green hydrogen produced for export or domestic use.25

The Viet Nam National Energy Efficiency Policy (VNEEP3 2019-2030) outlines energy efficiency targets for industry, separated by sub-sector such as reducing average energy consumption by 10% in the chemical industry.13 Viet Nam could improve on this policy by aligning the policy with the 1.5°C benchmarks.

1 Global Gas Plant Tracker. Global Gas Plant Tracker – Global Energy Monitor. (2021).

2 Climate Action Tracker. Viet Nam. November 2020 update. Climate Action Tracker. (2020).

3 Chapman, A., Urmee, T., Shem, C. & Fuentes, U. Energy transition to renewable energies. Opportunities for Australian cooperation with Vietnam. (2019).

4 IEA. Data & Statistics. International energy Agency, (2020).

5 MNRE. National Communication of Vietnam, The Third. (2019).

6 Viet Nam Government. Viet Nam Third Biennial Updated Report. (2020).

7 Phan Anh. Vietnam pledges to phase out coal power. VnExpress International, (2021).

8 UN Climate Change Conference (COP26). Global Coal to Clean Power Transition Statement. (2021).

9 Phạm Minh Chính. Viet Nam will take stronger measures to reduce greenhouse gas emission: PM . Viet Nam News. (2021).

10 Viet Nam Government. Updated Nationally Determined Contribution. (2020).

11 Viet Nam Government. Approving the Viet Nam’s Renewable Energy Development Strategy up to 2030 with an outlook to 2050.(2015).

12 Viet Nam Government. Resolution 55-NQ/TW – On Orientations of the Viet Nam’s National Energy Development Strategy to 2030 and outlook to 2045. (2020).

13 MOIT. Vietnam National Energy Efficiency Program 2019-2030. (2019).

14 Viet Nam Government. Approval of the Revised National Power Development Master Plan for the 2011-2020 Period with the Vision to 2030 (translated by GIZ). (2016).

15 UN Climate Change Conference 2021. Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forests and Land Use – UN Climate Change Conference (COP26). (2021).

16 Climate Action Tracker. Viet Nam can easily achieve its new target, but it does now cover whole economy and is clearer. Climate Action Tracker. (2020).

17 IEA. Vietnam. International Energy Agency. (2021).

18 MDI. Vietnam Energy Update Report 2020. (2020).

19 Allens. Renewables in Vietnam, Opportunities for Investment. (2020).

20 Vu, T. Vietnam’s extraordinary rooftop solar success deals another blow to the remaining coal pipeline. IEEFA. (2021).

21 Viet Nam Government. Decision on mechanisms to promote the development of solar power projects in Viet Nam. (2020).

22 Baker McKenzie. Vietnam: October 2021 updates to the Draft PDP8. (2021).

23 Viet Nam Government. Draft Power Development Plan 8 (third draft, February 2021). (2021).

24 IEA. Viet Nam. International Energy Agency. (2021).

25 Energy Voice. Enterprize eyes green hydrogen’s potential to ‘supercharge’ Vietnam. Energy Voice. (2021).

26 Phi Nhat. Support policies for EVs mapped out to encourage Vietnamese private sector’s participation. Hanoi Times. (2021).

27 VietnamNet. Vietnam expects new wave of electric vehicles in 2022. VietnamNet. (2022).

28 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.

29 October 2021 draft Power Development Plan 8.

Viet Namʼs energy mix in the industry sector

petajoule per year

Scaling
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
20192030204020502 0003 000
SSP1 High CDR reliance
20192030204020502 0003 000
Low energy demand
20192030204020502 0003 000
High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
20192030204020502 0003 000
  • Natural gas
  • Coal
  • Oil and e-fuels
  • Biofuel
  • Biogas
  • Biomass
  • Hydrogen
  • Electricity
  • Heat

Viet Namʼs industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)

MtCO₂/yr

Unit
02040608010019902010203020502070
  • Historical emissions
  • SSP1 High CDR reliance
  • SSP1 Low CDR reliance
  • High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
  • Low energy demand

Viet Namʼs GHG emissions from industrial processes

MtCO₂e/yr

02040608019902010203020502070
  • SSP1 Low CDR reliance
  • SSP1 High CDR reliance
  • Low energy demand
  • High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
  • Historical emissions

1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks

Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Viet Nam

Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Decarbonised industry sector by
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
73
10 to 25
6 to 12
1 to 5
2044 to 2045
Relative to reference year in %
−87 to −66%
−92 to −84%
−99 to −93%
Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Share of electricity
Percent
30
45 to 46
59 to 63
70 to 78
Share of electricity, hydrogren and biomass
Percent
44
66 to 69
77 to 90
82 to 96

Footnotes