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Current situation

What is Senegalʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Emissions profile

In Senegal, the agriculture and energy sectors are the two main sources of emissions representing 47% and 36% of total emissions in 2017, excluding LULUCF. Emissions from the agriculture sector will continue to increase through 2030 with enteric fermentation remaining the major category of emissions from this sector.1

Though the agriculture sector represented almost half of Senegal’s emissions in 2017, the energy sector is expected to replace agriculture as the largest source of emission in Senegal by 2022, representing more than 50% of the country’s emissions.1 This is mostly driven by an increase in energy demand through growing population and expanding energy access. Absolute energy emissions have increased by approximately 110% since 2010.1 Within the energy sector, the power and transport sectors make up the largest shares of CO₂ emissions.

The remaining sources of emissions are waste and industrial processes. While emissions from the waste sector are projected to slightly increase, emissions from industrial processes are expected to remain stable between 2025 and 2030.1

1 Republic of Senegal. Contribution déterminée au niveau national du Sénégal. (2020).

2 Ministère du Pétrole et des Énergies. Système d’information énergétique (SIE) du Sénégal. (2019).

3 African Development Bank. National Climate Change Profile: Senegal. (2018).

4 Tchanche, B. Energy Supply and Consumption in Senegal. in Sustaining Tomorrow via Innovative Engineering 55–82 (WORLD SCIENTIFIC, 2021). doi:10.1142/9789811228032_0002.

5 IEA. Africa Energy Outlook 2019. (2019).

6 Dieng, M. Face au défi climatique, comment les syndicats peuvent-ils accompagner les efforts du Sénégal dans sa transition énergétique? Equal Times. (2020).

7 Ly, Ibrahima; Faye, Yvonne; Diop, Abdou; Kane, Khoudia; Diop, Kader; Sarr, Bassirou; Diallo, Aissatou; Ndiaye, Saboury; Sarr, Ousmane Fall; Senghor, Mame Satou; Faye, Antoine; Ndour, Abdou; Niasse, Seynabou Diouf; Diedhiou, Abdou Aziz; Diakhate, Adiara Ka, S. ProGREEN Senegal Renewable Energy Assessment. (2021).

8 Ministère de l’Économie des Finances et du Plan. Plan Sénégal Émergent (PSE) Plan d’Actions Prioritaires (2019-2023). (2018).

9 Ministère du Pétrole et des Energies. Lettre de Politique de Développement du Secteur de l’Energie (LPDSE) 2019-2023. (2019).

10 In analysed pathways, the energy and power sector assume already a certain amount of carbon dioxide removal technologies, in this case bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS).

11 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.

12 Senegal conditional NDC is provided in Global Warming Potentials (GWP) from the Second Assessment Report (SAR) and equals 27 MtCO₂e/yr or 29.5% below BAU. This translates in 59% emissions reduction above 2010, base year provided in the NDC as reference for the BAU scenario. Baseline year referenced in the NDC for the BAU scenario and subsequent NDC targets are excluding forestry contributions and biomass and total aggregated contribution to the NDC suggested that LULUCF emissions are excluded. We therefore assume that the NDC targets are excluding LULUCF.

13 Historical base year 2010 provided in the NDC differs significantly from the PRIMAP-Hist historical source used in this analysis (around 28%), we there provide a range for the NDC. The upper bound of the NDC is based on an estimated BAU excluding LULUCF scaled to historical dataset excluding LULUCF used in the analysis: PRIMAP-Hist 2019 and in Global Warming Potentials AR4. We apply then the conditional NDC emissions reduction target of -29.5%. The lower bound of the NDC is based on the provided NDC target converted to global warming potentials AR4 using the ratio SAR/AR4 from the PRIMAP-Hist 2019 dataset. See assumptions section.

Senegalʼs current GHG emissions

MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

By sector

  • Transport
  • Power
  • Fugitive emissions
  • Industry (energy use)
  • Buildings
  • Other
  • Agriculture
  • Waste
  • Industry (processes)
  • LULUCF
Energy (36%)0

By gas

  • CH₄
  • CO₂
  • N₂O
  • Other
00

Sectors by gas

Energy
080%0
Agriculture
00
Industry (processes)
0100%0

Energy system

The residential and transportation sectors account for 47% and 32% respectively of Senegal’s energy consumption, while the industrial sector accounted for 15% of consumption in 2018.2 The total final energy consumption increased from 1.69 Mtoe in 2000 to 2.715 Mtoe in 2014, was mostly driven by the residential sector.2,4 Increased energy demand is a result of successful energy access policies with almost 70% of the population connected as of 2019, and the goal of achieving full access by 2025.1,5

Senegal’s total national production of energy is dominated by biofuels (predominantly from woody biomass such as firewood and charcoal but also livestock dung) mostly used for cooking appliances and heating. In 2014, biofuel generated 96% to the national energy production with 2% each sourced from gas and hydropower.3 Senegal imports all fossil fuels used in the country with a considerable share of its export revenue going towards paying this bill (in 2018, 48% of its export revenue went towards honouring its import bill).2,4 In 2018, Senegal’s energy supply was dominated by imported petroleum products (53%) and locally produced biomass (35%).2

In 2018, electricity contributed approximately 12% to total final national energy consumption.2 Oil generated approximately 84% of electricity with an additional 9% coming from hydropower, 4% from gas, and 2% from non-hydro renewable energy.3 While Senegal intends to develop a cumulative installed capacity in solar energy of 235 MW, 150 MW in wind energy, 314 MW in hydropower by 2030, the country is also exploring options for exploiting the oil and natural gas reserves which have been recently discovered.1 The exploitation of its oil field, one of the most important in West Africa, should take off from 2023.6 Local companies are working on a partnership with British Petroleum (BP). The 450 billion m³ of certified gas gives the State hope of significant revenues in the future.6

Targets and commitments

Economy-wide targets

Target type

Baseline scenario target

NDC target

Conditional target

  • 29.5% below BAU by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).
  • Estimated 2030 conditional NDC: 37% above 2015 by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).

Unconditional target

  • 7% below BAU by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).
  • Estimated 2030 unconditional NDC: 60% above 2015 by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).

Note: Baseline year referenced in Senegal’s NDC for the BAU scenario and subsequent NDC targets is excluding forestry contributions and biomass and total aggregated contribution to the NDC suggested that LULUCF emissions are excluded. We therefore assume that the NDC targets are excluding LULUCF and biomass. The NDC does include “AFAT (Agriculture, Foresterie et utilization terres)” but it does not provide a quantitative target.

Market mechanism

  • ‘Senegal will continue to carry out mitigation activities under the international carbon market mechanisms of the Paris Agreement for the purposes of the NDC in collaboration with international partners. The achievement of the conditional targets could be met through market mechanisms.’

Long-term target

  • Senegal does not currently have a long-term target.

Sector coverage

EnergyIndustryWasteAgricultureLULUCF

Greenhouse gas coverage

CO₂CH₄N₂O

Sectoral targets

Energy

  • Achieved energy savings of 627.028 GWh.1
  • Reduced electrical energy demand by 126.8 MW.

Transport

  • No quantitative targets in NDC.

Buildings

  • Not a sector addressed in NDC, nor are there quantitative targets in NDC.

Waste

  • At the level of liquid sanitation, achievement of an access rate to the sanitation network of 85% by 2030 (i.e. a treatment rate of nearly 70% and a depollution rate of over 55%).1

Agriculture

  • Put 99,621 ha of agricultural land under Assisted Natural Regeneration (ANR) and 4500 ha under compost, by 2030.1

Power

  • Achieve a cumulative installed capacity in solar energy of 235 MW, 150 MW in wind energy, 314 MW in hydro-electricity in 2030.1
  • Inject a total power of 699 MW in renewable energies in 2030.
  • Achieve a penetration rate of renewable energy of 13.68% in installed capacity, excluding hydroelectricity, in 2019 in the electricity grid.
  • In order to promote electrification through solar energy, 6.18 MWp will be installed at the level of isolated systems outside the Interconnected Network.
  • Dissemination of 800,000 improved cookstoves (IFs) per year by 2030, compared to approximately 350,000 IFs in 2016.
  • Cumulative realisation of 27,000 bio digesters by 2030.
  • Continuation of the butane gas policy and promotion of bio-coal.

LULUCF

  • Increase annually the reforested/restored areas by about 1297 ha of mangrove and 21,000 ha of various plantations.1
  • Reduce the area burned due to late fires by 5% and those due to controlled fires by 10% compared to 2015.

Footnotes