Power sector in 2030

Senegal’s power sector relies heavily on fossil fuel, mainly oil, in power generation with a share of almost 90% in 2017 and the remaining share composed of renewables.⁵

1.5°C compatible pathways demonstrate that power sector carbon intensity could decline from 850 gCO₂/kWh in 2017 to -360-20 gCO₂/kWh by 2030. This could be achieved through a sharp reduction of fossil fuels in the power sector from 89% in 2017 to 3-5% by 2030. This would be supported by a high uptake of renewable energy (including solar, wind, hydro and modern biomass) in the power mix from a share of 11% in 2017 to 94–97% by 2030.

The government plan, Priority Action Plan 2 (PAP2) (2019-2023) as part of the PSE (Plan Sénégal Émergent), targets an increase in the renewables in the energy mix to 29.2% by 2023 from 17.23% in 2017.⁸

Towards a fully decarbonised power sector

Senegal’s power sector could reach net zero emissions by 2035.¹⁰ This would require a rapid phase out of oil, coal, and gas from the power mix with renewable energies contributing to 100% of the national power mix by 2040. Some of our analysed pathways show the penetration of carbon dioxide removal technologies such as BECCS in the power mix, though the cost of these technologies make it an unlikely uptake option for Senegal. Higher uptake of renewable energies would reduce the need for such technologies.

However, Senegal’s NDC states that the exploitation of its oil and gas reserves is planned to start in 2022 having made the discovery of major offshore natural gas reserves between 2015 and 2017.^1,5 As gas and coal already play a negligible role in Senegal’s fossil fuel share in the power mix, investing in gas-to-power plans would lock in a carbon intensive pathway and risk stranded assets.

While the urban electrification rate was approximately 93.6% in 2018, the rural rate was 42.3%.⁹ Thus, expanding electricity access and securing reliability of supply are additional challenges Senegal faces in transforming its power sector. In 2018, traditional biomass (fuelwood and charcoal) accounted for 82% of total residential energy consumption of 1.246 Mtoe.² Promoting electric transportation and cooking technologies that run on clean energy would significantly curb household biomass combustion and reduce fossil fuel usage.

To improve energy security and boost people’s confidence on electric cooking and transportation technologies, the government will need to expand and improve grid accessibility and load capacity, invest in hydropower and solar plants with energy storage systems, diversify its energy mix by establishing large scale solar and wind projects, and provide subsidies and lower taxation on clean technologies. These substantial changes in the energy sources and infrastructure require holistic cross-sectoral policy packages.

¹ Republic of Senegal. Contribution déterminée au niveau national du Sénégal. (2020).

² Ministère du Pétrole et des Énergies. Système d’information énergétique (SIE) du Sénégal. (2019).

³ African Development Bank. National Climate Change Profile: Senegal. (2018).

⁴ Tchanche, B. Energy Supply and Consumption in Senegal. in Sustaining Tomorrow via Innovative Engineering 55–82 (WORLD SCIENTIFIC, 2021). doi:10.1142/9789811228032_0002.

⁵ IEA. Africa Energy Outlook 2019. (2019).

⁶ Dieng, M. Face au défi climatique, comment les syndicats peuvent-ils accompagner les efforts du Sénégal dans sa transition énergétique? Equal Times. (2020).

⁷ Ly, Ibrahima; Faye, Yvonne; Diop, Abdou; Kane, Khoudia; Diop, Kader; Sarr, Bassirou; Diallo, Aissatou; Ndiaye, Saboury; Sarr, Ousmane Fall; Senghor, Mame Satou; Faye, Antoine; Ndour, Abdou; Niasse, Seynabou Diouf; Diedhiou, Abdou Aziz; Diakhate, Adiara Ka, S. ProGREEN Senegal Renewable Energy Assessment. (2021).

⁸ Ministère de l’Économie des Finances et du Plan. Plan Sénégal Émergent (PSE) Plan d’Actions Prioritaires (2019-2023). (2018).

⁹ Ministère du Pétrole et des Energies. Lettre de Politique de Développement du Secteur de l’Energie (LPDSE) 2019-2023. (2019).

¹⁰ In analysed pathways, the energy and power sector assume already a certain amount of carbon dioxide removal technologies, in this case bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS).

¹¹ While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.

¹² Senegal conditional NDC is provided in Global Warming Potentials (GWP) from the Second Assessment Report (SAR) and equals 27 MtCO₂e/yr or 29.5% below BAU. This translates in 59% emissions reduction above 2010, base year provided in the NDC as reference for the BAU scenario. Baseline year referenced in the NDC for the BAU scenario and subsequent NDC targets are excluding forestry contributions and biomass and total aggregated contribution to the NDC suggested that LULUCF emissions are excluded. We therefore assume that the NDC targets are excluding LULUCF.

¹³ Historical base year 2010 provided in the NDC differs significantly from the PRIMAP-Hist historical source used in this analysis (around 28%), we there provide a range for the NDC. The upper bound of the NDC is based on an estimated BAU excluding LULUCF scaled to historical dataset excluding LULUCF used in the analysis: PRIMAP-Hist 2019 and in Global Warming Potentials AR4. We apply then the conditional NDC emissions reduction target of -29.5%. The lower bound of the NDC is based on the provided NDC target converted to global warming potentials AR4 using the ratio SAR/AR4 from the PRIMAP-Hist 2019 dataset. See assumptions section.