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Peru Sectors

What is Peruʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Power sector in 2030

Peru’s power sector is already comprised of about 60% renewable sources, with roughly 55% from hydropower and the remaining 4% from solar and wind in 2019.6 The government has set a target to increase the share of solar and wind in the power sector to 15% by 2030. 1.5°C compatible pathways would require a minimum share of 94% renewable power production in the power sector by 2030.

This leaves significant room for improvement on Peru’s power sector decarbonisation targets.

Additionally, 1.5°C compatible pathways would require gas to be phased out from the power sector between 2033 and 2035. Yet Peru continues to expand the use of natural gas in power and other sectors, opening bidding for a new gas pipeline project through seven of the country’s regions in early 2021.19

Towards a fully decarbonised power sector

On a 1.5°C compatible pathway, Peru’s power sector should reach full decarbonisation by 2031 to 2035. This will be driven by a coal phase-out pretty much immediately and a gas phase-out in the early 2030s. Some models show the development of negative emissions technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) up to roughly 4 EJ/yr by 2030.20

Higher levels of renewable energy will reduce the reliance on carbon dioxide removal approaches. The main drivers of decarbonisation in the power sector will be the increased uptake of renewable power sources, such as solar and wind power. For 1.5°C pathways, Peru would need to reach 100% renewable power production by 2035.

1 Climate Action Tracker. Climate Target Update Tracker: Peru. (2020).

2 Climate Action Tracker. Peru: Country Summary. (2020).

3 Ministerio de Energía y Minas Peru. Minem: al cierre del último año se ejecutaron 49 proyectos de energías renovables en el Perú. (2021).

4 COES Perú. Actualización Plan de Transmision 2021 – 2030. (2020).

5 Andina Staff. 15% of Peru’s energy matrix in 2030 to be generated from renewable sources. Andina: Agencia Peruana de Noticias (2018).

6 International Energy Agency. Peru: Electricity generation by source. (2020).

7 BN Americas. What’s next for Peru’s failed 7-region gas concession call? BN Americas (2021).

8 Ministerio de Ambiente de Peru. Estiman que reducir emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero beneficiará al país en 98 mil millones de dólares al 2050. Press Release, Ministerio de Ambiente (2020).

9 Gobierno del Peru. Contribuciones Determinadas a Nivel Nacional del Perú. Reporte de actualización periodo 2021-2030. 29 (2020).

10 Reuters Staff. Peru says deforestation on the rise, up 80 percent from 2001. Reuters (2014).

11 International Energy Agency (IEA). Peru: Total energy supply (TES) by source. (2020).

12 Banco del Desarrollo de Perú (COFIDE). Prácticas e instrumentos financieros para promover la descarbonización de la movilidad urbana. (2019).

13 COFIDE. KfW y COFIDE firman acuerdo de préstamo por 250 millones de euros para Programa “Covid 19: Programa de Reactivación Verde”. (2020).

14 Organismo Supervisor de Inversión en Energía y Minería (OSINERGMIN)- Perú. La industria del gas natural en el Perú a diez años del Proyecto Camisea. 51, (2017).

15 El Congreso de la República de Perú. LEY No 29969: Ley que dicta disposiciones a fin de promover la masificación del gas natural. El Peruano 23, 32 (El Congreso de la Repúblic de Perú, 2012).

16 Government of Peru. Peruvian submission to the UNFCCC under the Copenhagen accord. (2010).

17 Ministerio del Ambiente- Perú. Segundo Informe Bienal de Actualización ante la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climático. (2019).

18 Ministry of Environment of Peru. Programa Bosques del Minam proyecta conservar 10 millones de hectáreas de bosques comunales hacia el 2030. (2020).

19 BN Americas. Increasing natural gas use in 7 Peruvian regions: a mature and profitable project. (2020).

20 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.

21 In some of the analysed pathways, the energy sector assumes already a certain amount of carbon dioxide removal technologies, in this case bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS).

Peruʼs power mix

gigawatt

Scaling
Dimension
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
2019203020402050200
SSP1 High CDR reliance
2019203020402050200
Low Energy Demand
2019203020402050200
High Energy Demand - Low CDR reliance
2019203020402050200
  • Nuclear and/or fossil with CCS
  • Unabated fossil
  • Renewables incl. Biomass
  • Negative emissions technologies via BECCS

Peruʼs power sector emissions and carbon intensity

MtCO₂/yr

Unit
051019902010203020502070
  • Historical emissions
  • Low Energy Demand
  • 100%RE
  • SSP1 Low CDR reliance
  • SSP1 High CDR reliance
  • High Energy Demand - Low CDR reliance

1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks

Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Peru

Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Decarbonised power sector by
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
200
10 to 20
0
0
2031 to 2035
Relative to reference year in %
−97 to −89%
−100%
−102 to −100%
Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Year of phase-out
Share of unabated coal
Percent
0
0
0
0
Share of unabated gas
Percent
38
2 to 5
0
0
2033 to 2035
Share of renewable energy
Percent
60
95 to 98
100
100
Share of unabated fossil fuel
Percent
40
2 to 5
0
0

Footnotes