Peru’s conditional NDC target, updated in 2020, aims for absolute emissions of 107 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 (5% above 2015 levels), excluding LULUCF. Post-COVID policy projections for the country estimate that 2030 emissions will be between 110-113 MtCO₂e/yr (10-13% above 2015 levels).
In contrast, 1.5°C compatible pathways show that Peru’s 2030 emissions would need to reduce by 26-41% below 2015 levels by 2030, reaching between 60-75 MtCO₂e/yr, excluding LULUCF emissions. Peru would therefore need to mitigate an at least additional 32 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 on top of its conditional NDC target to fall within the upper range of 1.5°C compatible emission reduction targets.
Limiting emissions to Peru’s 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway will require substantial international support to close the large gap between its fair share level and and 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions level.
Long term pathway
Peru has announced its intent to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions including LULUCF by 2050, according to preliminary findings from a technical study carried out by Peru’s Ministry of the Environment. A clear strategy to reach this goal is not yet set, as the formulation of a strategy will only begin in 2021.
When excluding LULUCF emissions, Peru‘s remaining GHG emissions by 2050 should not exceed levels of around 12 MtCO₂ e/yr or emissions reductions of at least 89% below 2015 levels. Similarly, Peru’s CO₂ emissions will need to reach zero by 2050 under 1.5°C compatible pathways.
The key drivers of emissions reductions will be decarbonisation in the power and transport sectors, where emissions will need to be drastically reduced by switching to renewable sources of power production and zero-emission vehicles. On the road to net zero, the country will need to balance its remaining emissions through the use of carbon sinks, likely from land sector. Given the high share of LULUCF emissions (more than half of total GHG emissions in Peru’s latest national inventory report), the country will need to implement stringent policies to stop deforestation, reducing LULUCF emissions to become a larger sink.