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Ambition gap

What is Peruʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

Peru’s conditional NDC target, updated in 2020, aims for absolute emissions of 107 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 (5% above 2015 levels), excluding LULUCF. Post-COVID policy projections for the country estimate that 2030 emissions will be between 110-113 MtCO₂e/yr (10-13% above 2015 levels).2

In contrast, 1.5°C compatible pathways show that Peru’s 2030 emissions would need to reduce by 26-41% below 2015 levels by 2030, reaching between 60-75 MtCO₂e/yr, excluding LULUCF emissions. Peru would therefore need to mitigate an at least additional 32 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 on top of its conditional NDC target to fall within the upper range of 1.5°C compatible emission reduction targets.

Limiting emissions to Peru’s 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway will require substantial international support to close the large gap between its fair share level and and 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions level.

Long term pathway

Peru has announced its intent to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions including LULUCF by 2050, according to preliminary findings from a technical study carried out by Peru’s Ministry of the Environment.8 A clear strategy to reach this goal is not yet set, as the formulation of a strategy will only begin in 2021.9

When excluding LULUCF emissions, Peru‘s remaining GHG emissions by 2050 should not exceed levels of around 12 MtCO₂ e/yr or emissions reductions of at least 89% below 2015 levels. Similarly, Peru’s CO₂ emissions will need to reach zero by 2050 under 1.5°C compatible pathways.20

The key drivers of emissions reductions will be decarbonisation in the power and transport sectors, where emissions will need to be drastically reduced by switching to renewable sources of power production and zero-emission vehicles. On the road to net zero, the country will need to balance its remaining emissions through the use of carbon sinks, likely from land sector. Given the high share of LULUCF emissions (more than half of total GHG emissions in Peru’s latest national inventory report), the country will need to implement stringent policies to stop deforestation, reducing LULUCF emissions to become a larger sink.

1 Climate Action Tracker. Climate Target Update Tracker: Peru. (2020).

2 Climate Action Tracker. Peru: Country Summary. (2020).

3 Ministerio de Energía y Minas Peru. Minem: al cierre del último año se ejecutaron 49 proyectos de energías renovables en el Perú. (2021).

4 COES Perú. Actualización Plan de Transmision 2021 – 2030. (2020).

5 Andina Staff. 15% of Peru’s energy matrix in 2030 to be generated from renewable sources. Andina: Agencia Peruana de Noticias (2018).

6 International Energy Agency. Peru: Electricity generation by source. (2020).

7 BN Americas. What’s next for Peru’s failed 7-region gas concession call? BN Americas (2021).

8 Ministerio de Ambiente de Peru. Estiman que reducir emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero beneficiará al país en 98 mil millones de dólares al 2050. Press Release, Ministerio de Ambiente (2020).

9 Gobierno del Peru. Contribuciones Determinadas a Nivel Nacional del Perú. Reporte de actualización periodo 2021-2030. 29 (2020).

10 Reuters Staff. Peru says deforestation on the rise, up 80 percent from 2001. Reuters (2014).

11 International Energy Agency (IEA). Peru: Total energy supply (TES) by source. (2020).

12 Banco del Desarrollo de Perú (COFIDE). Prácticas e instrumentos financieros para promover la descarbonización de la movilidad urbana. (2019).

13 COFIDE. KfW y COFIDE firman acuerdo de préstamo por 250 millones de euros para Programa “Covid 19: Programa de Reactivación Verde”. (2020).

14 Organismo Supervisor de Inversión en Energía y Minería (OSINERGMIN)- Perú. La industria del gas natural en el Perú a diez años del Proyecto Camisea. 51, (2017).

15 El Congreso de la República de Perú. LEY No 29969: Ley que dicta disposiciones a fin de promover la masificación del gas natural. El Peruano 23, 32 (El Congreso de la Repúblic de Perú, 2012).

16 Government of Peru. Peruvian submission to the UNFCCC under the Copenhagen accord. (2010).

17 Ministerio del Ambiente- Perú. Segundo Informe Bienal de Actualización ante la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climático. (2019).

18 Ministry of Environment of Peru. Programa Bosques del Minam proyecta conservar 10 millones de hectáreas de bosques comunales hacia el 2030. (2020).

19 BN Americas. Increasing natural gas use in 7 Peruvian regions: a mature and profitable project. (2020).

20 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.

21 In some of the analysed pathways, the energy sector assumes already a certain amount of carbon dioxide removal technologies, in this case bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS).

Methodology

Peruʼs total GHG emissions

excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values
Reference year
−200%−150%−100%−50%0%19902010203020502070
Net zero GHG excl. LULUCF*
2060
Reference year
2015
1.5°C emissions level
−31%
NDC (conditional)
+5%
NDC (unconditional)
+21%
Ambition gap
−36%
  • 1.5°C compatible pathways
  • Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
  • Current policy projections
  • 1.5°C emissions range
  • Historical emissions
2030 emissions levels
Current policy projections
NDC (conditional)
1.5°C emissions level
Ref. year 2015
102MtCO₂e/yr

Energy system transformation

The transport and power sectors will be key to decarbonising Peru’s energy system. Peru’s total primary energy supply (TPES) is dominated by oil and natural gas, used to power the country’s vehicles, industry and residential sectors, with only a 25% share of renewable energy in the TPES in 2018.11

Between 30-57% of Peru’s TPES will need to be generated from renewable sources by 2030 in order to remain aligned with 1.5°C pathways and 51-95% by 2050, with lower shares of renewable energy in TPES resulting in higher reliance on negative emissions technologies to balance remaining emissions. CO₂ emissions for the whole energy sector would need to reach between 29-46 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 and reduce to -32 to 0 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050.

Unless high shares of renewable energy can be quickly achieved in the energy sector, negative emissions from using technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) will need to be implemented as soon as possible to compensate for continued emissions from the energy sector.

Methodology

Peruʼs primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Scaling
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
20192030204020502 000
SSP1 High CDR reliance
20192030204020502 000
Low Energy Demand
20192030204020502 000
High Energy Demand - Low CDR reliance
20192030204020502 000
  • Negative emissions technologies via BECCS
  • Unabated fossil
  • Renewables incl. Biomass
  • Nuclear and/or fossil with CCS

Peruʼs total CO₂ emissions

excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

−100−5005019902010203020502070
  • 1.5°C compatible pathways
  • 1.5°C emissions range
  • Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
  • Historical emissions

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Peru. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference year
Indicator
2015
Reference year
2019
2030
2040
2050
Year of net zero GHG
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
102
107
70
61 to 81
39
31 to 46
16
−6 to 35
2060
2049
Relative to reference year in %
−31%
−40 to −21%
−61%
−69 to −54%
−84%
−106 to −66%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
56
60
39
28 to 45
9
−3 to 19
−11
−31 to 1
2044
2039 to 2058
Relative to reference year in %
−31%
−51 to −19%
−84%
−105 to −65%
−120%
−155 to −98%

Footnotes