Nigeria’s transport sector relies almost entirely on fossil fuels (as of 2019), which are highly subsidised by the government. Substituting fossil fuel subsidies for ones that promote low-carbon alternatives such as taking public transport would be a critical step towards decarbonising the transport sector. Such a process must be managed in a way that ensures a just transition for those who rely on the availability of affordable fuel.
Under 1.5°C compatible pathways, fossil fuels are either phased out or their share is drastically reduced by 2050, with demand met by biofuels, electricity, and/or hydrogen. By 2050, the transport sector’s electrification rate reaches 33-56%.
Nigeria has some emissions reduction plans in place for the transport sector. The 2019 National Action Plan to Reduce Short-lived Climate Pollutants includes measures such as removing buses which do not meet vehicle emission standards from the fleet. Nigeria’s updated NDC reiterates some of these measures and builds on targets for increased bus transit. In the Energy Transition Plan, the government includes a short-term target to increase biofuel blend rates by 2036, and a long-term target for 100% of vehicles on the market to be electric Vehicles (EVs) by 2060.
1 Federal Republic of Nigeria. Submission of an Interim Report of the Updated Nationally Determined Contribution. (2021).
2 Federal Ministry of Power. About this platform. Nigeria SE4ALL.
3 Energy Commission of Nigeria. National Energy Policy. (2018).
4 Akinola, R. Nigeria Moves to Develop Long-Term Low Emissions Plan to Curb Climate Change. Natural Eco Capital. (2020).
5 Federal Ministry of Environment. Third National Communication (TNC) of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. (2020).
6 IEA. Africa Energy Outlook 2019. (2019).
7 IEA. World Energy Balances 2020. (2020).
8 Economic Sustainability Committee. Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan. (2020).
9 IRENA. Nigeria.
10 Central Bank of Nigeria. Half Year Economic Report, 2020. (2020).
11 Department of Climate Change. President Buhari Approves the Revised National Climate Change Policy for Nigeria. (2021).
12 Akinola, R. Nigeria Moves to Develop Long-Term Low Emissions Plan to Curb Climate Change. (2020).
13 The Premium Times. Osinbajo urges EU not to stop financing Nigeria’s gas projects. (2021).
14 Vanguard. Let’s engage more on transition to net zero emissions, Osinbajo tells visiting COP26 President-designate. (2021).
15 Ministry of Power. National Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Policy. (2015)
Nigeriaʼs energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
- Natural gas
- Coal
- Oil and e-fuels
- Biofuel
- Biogas
- Biomass
- Hydrogen
- Electricity
- Heat
Nigeriaʼs transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
- Historical emissions
- SSP1 High CDR reliance
- SSP1 Low CDR reliance
- High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
- Low energy demand
1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Nigeria
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Decarbonised transport sector by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Direct CO₂ emissions MtCO₂/yr | 56 | 27 to 33 | 19 to 24 | 0 to 12 | 2047 to 2053 |
Relative to reference year in % | −51 to −40% | −66 to −56% | −100 to −79% |
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Share of electricity Percent | 0 | 5 to 22 | 17 to 41 | 33 to 56 |
Share of biofuels Percent | 0 | 2 to 9 | 4 to 55 | 10 to 60 |
Share of hydrogen Percent | 0 | 1 to 12 | 31 to 34 | 42 |