In May 2021, Nigeria submitted an interim update NDC report reiterating the targets put forward in 2017, but notes the government has not yet approved the ambition level in mitigation. The interim report also significantly revises historical and BAU emissions.
Considering these revisions, Nigeria’s NDC targets GHG emission level of 214 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 (excl. LULUCF) translating to 33% below 2015 levels by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).
Nigeria’s conditional NDC target is just above the lower bound of the 1.5°C compatible range requiring 13-35% emissions reductions below 2015 levels by 2030 (or 210-281 MtCO₂e/yr) excluding LULUCF. Nigeria’s conditional NDC target may be well in line with 1.5°C compatible pathways; however, this is highly contingent on the role of LULUCF emissions in meeting the target.
The implementation of Nigeria’s domestic emissions pathway will be made possible with and through international support to close the gap between its fair share level and domestic emissions level.
Long term pathway
By mid-century, GHG emissions in Nigeria should be almost cut in half, by 42% below 2015 levels excl. LULUCF. CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF should be reduced substantially to 76% below 2015 levels by 2050.
Remaining emissions from the agriculture and waste sectors will need to be balanced with negative CO₂ emissions through the deployment of carbon dioxide removals approaches.
While Nigeria does not have a net zero target as of April 2021, the government is developing a long-term strategy for 2050. Nigeria’s Vice President Yemi Osinbajo expressed support for a net zero economy, though emphasized the importance of natural gas in the transition., Continued investment in natural gas may lock Nigeria into higher emissions and increases the risk of stranded assets.