Power sector in 2030
1.5°C compatible pathways shows that carbon intensity could decline from 390 gCO₂/kWh in 2017 to 120–160 gCO₂/kWh by 2030. This could be achieved through a sharp reduction of fossil fuels in the power sector from 77% in 2017 to zero to 23% by 2030. This would be supported by a high uptake of renewable energy (including variable renewables, hydro and biomass) in the power mix from a share of 23% in 2017 to 77–100% by 2030.
Nigeria’s Electricity Vision 30:30:30 targets a renewable energy share of 30% of the power mix by 2030 and the NREEEP targets an installed capacity share of 20% renewable energy (including large hydro) by 2030.2,15 Nigeria’s 2018 draft revised National Energy Policy also includes plans to revitalise the coal sector.3
Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
The power sector can be fully decarbonised by 2040. This could be achieved through a rapid uptake of renewable energy in the power sector, reaching 100% already by 2040. Transformation of the power sector would also require the phase out of natural gas before 2050, exiting the power mix between 2030 and 2040.
Nigeria does not have long-term power sector targets or plans to phase out fossil fuels; however, the government is in the process of developing a long-term climate vision for 2050 that includes the power sector.4 Expanding electricity access and securing reliability of supply are additional challenges Nigeria faces in transforming their power sector.
1 Federal Republic of Nigeria. Submission of an Interim Report of the Updated Nationally Determined Contribution. (2021).
2 Federal Ministry of Power. About this platform. Nigeria SE4ALL.
3 Energy Commission of Nigeria. National Energy Policy. (2018).
4 Akinola, R. Nigeria Moves to Develop Long-Term Low Emissions Plan to Curb Climate Change. Natural Eco Capital. (2020).
5 Federal Ministry of Environment. Third National Communication (TNC) of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. (2020).
6 IEA. Africa Energy Outlook 2019. (2019).
7 IEA. World Energy Balances 2020. (2020).
8 Economic Sustainability Committee. Bouncing Back: Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan. (2020).
9 IRENA. Nigeria.
10 Central Bank of Nigeria. Half Year Economic Report, 2020. (2020).
11 Department of Climate Change. President Buhari Approves the Revised National Climate Change Policy for Nigeria. (2021).
12 Akinola, R. Nigeria Moves to Develop Long-Term Low Emissions Plan to Curb Climate Change. (2020).
13 The Premium Times. Osinbajo urges EU not to stop financing Nigeria’s gas projects. (2021).
14 Vanguard. Let’s engage more on transition to net zero emissions, Osinbajo tells visiting COP26 President-designate. (2021).
15 Ministry of Power. National Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Policy. (2015)
16 See the Climate Action Tracker for assumptions.
17 See Climate Action Tracker, forthcoming analysis on Nigeria.
18 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.
19 See Climate Action Tracker assessment on Nigeria.
20 In some of the analysed pathways, the power sector assumes already a certain amount of carbon dioxide removal technologies, in this case bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS).
Nigeriaʼs power mix
terawatt-hour per year
- Negative emissions technologies via BECCS
- Unabated fossil
- Nuclear and/or fossil with CCS
- Renewables incl. biomass
Nigeriaʼs power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
- Historical emissions
- SSP1 High CDR reliance
- SSP1 Low CDR reliance
- High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
- Low energy demand
- 100%RE
1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Nigeria
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Decarbonised power sector by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Carbon intensity of power gCO₂/kWh | 410 | 0 to 100 | 0 | 0 | 2030 to 2040 |
Relative to reference year in % | −100 to −76% | −100% | −100% |
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Year of phase-out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Share of unabated coal Percent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Share of unabated gas Percent | 78 | 0 to 20 | 0 | 0 | 2030 to 2040 |
Share of renewable energy Percent | 22 | 80 to 100 | 100 | 100 | |
Share of unabated fossil fuel Percent | 78 | 0 to 20 | 0 | 0 |
Investments
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time. See the power section for capacities deployment under the various models.
Nigeriaʼs renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Nigeria to be on the order of USD 1.3 to 11 billion by 2030 and 1.3 to 25 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors, growing energy demand, and expansion of electricity access. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.