The transport sector is the biggest consumer of energy and has the highest share of total final energy consumption in Botswana (around 45% in 2019).⁵ The sector was responsible for about 2.4 MtCO₂e, or 8% of Botswana’s total emissions in 2015, with road transport being the largest source of emissions within the sector.¹ Transport in Botswana is entirely powered by imported petroleum fuels, with the sector consuming 38% of all imported petroleum products in 2015.¹

To align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Botswana would need to reduce the direct annual CO₂ emissions from the transport sector from 2 MtCO₂ in 2019 to 1 MtCO₂ by 2040, and fully decarbonise the sector by 2047-2050. This can be achieved through a rapid electrification, with the share of electricity growing from 0% in 2019 to 6-21% in 2030, and 25-42% by 2050. Hydrogen and biofuels could also play a role in the decarbonisation of the sector. The share of biofuels could increase from 0% in 2019 to 2-11% in 2030, and 10-62% by 2050.

Some scenarios indicate that the share of oil in the transport sector could be reduced to 0% by 2050, while others indicate that it could reduce to between 5-20%. All scenarios indicate that direct CO₂ emissions from the sector would have to peak around 2030.

Currently, Botswana’s main initiative for reducing emissions from this sector is to increase the proportion of the population using public transport to 50% by 2030.¹ The Government of Botswana estimates that this measure will result in an emissions reduction of 1.35 MtCO₂e.¹ The country also has an ongoing integrated transport project worth USD 385.2 million financed by the World Bank, but the mitigation potential of this project is unclear.¹

Botswana also articulated several desired outcomes in its 2011 National Integrated Transport Policy. These included facilitating a shift to public and rail transportation over private road transport, reducing harmful emissions from the sector by 20% in 2025 and 30% by 2036, and achieving a 10% increase in the share of renewable energy in the sector every decade.¹⁸ The extent to which these initiatives have been realised is unclear, but Botswana should seek to accelerate measures such as the use of public and rail transport, and facilitate uptake of electric and biofuel-powered vehicles.

¹ Ministry of Environment Natural Resources Conservation and Tourism. Botswana’s First Biennial Update Report (BUR) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. (2019).

² Government of Botswana. Botswana Intended Nationally Determined Contribution. (2016).

³ Ministry of Environment Natural Resources Conservation and Tourism. Botswana’s Third National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. (2019).

⁴ BITC Research Department. Investment Opportunities in the Coal Sector: Investor Factsheet. (2016).

⁵ International Energy Agency. Botswana: Data Browser. International Energy Agency. (2022).

⁶ Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Paris Reality Check: PRIMAP-hist. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. (2021).

⁷ Government of Botswana. National Development Plan 11. (2017).

⁸ Benza, B. Botswana’s state-owned coal miner aims to boost output by 35%. Reuters. (2021).

⁹ United Nations Environment Programme. Energy Profile: Botswana.

¹⁰ Bungane, B. Botswana grants first ever generation licenses to IPPs. ESI Africa. (2020).

¹¹ Dabla, N., Zeyi, B., Wanjiru, E. N., Fichaux, N. & Mabowe, B. Renewables Readiness Assessment: Botswana. (2021).

¹² Ministry of Mineral Resources, G. T. and E. S. National Energy Policy. (2021).

¹³ Adedoyin, A. et al. Botswana Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventories for Biennial Update Report (BUR). (2016).

¹⁴ African Development Bank Group. Botswana – Botswana Renewable Energy Support Project – Project Appraisal Report. African Development Bank Group. (2022).

¹⁵ Government of the Republic of Botswana. Integrated Resource Plan for Electricity for Botswana. (2020).

¹⁶ Benza, B. India’s Jindal plans to start building Botswana coal mine in 2022. Reuters. (2021).

¹⁷ Benza, B. Botswana plans $2.5 bln coal-to-liquids plant to cut fuel imports. Reuters (2022).

¹⁸ Ministry of Transport and Communications. National Integrated Transport Policy – White Paper. (2011).-

¹⁹ While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.

²⁰ It should also be noted that there are significant discrepancies between the base year emissions expressed in the NDC and in historical datasets. The NDC indicates 2010 emissions as 8.3 MtCO₂e, while historical datasets puts the value at 27 MtCO₂e. The NDC, however, does not account for significant sources of CH₄ emissions from the agriculture sector, and aims to realise its mitigations from the energy sector exclusively. To this end, we have interpreted the baseline indicated in the NDC as being comparable to the energy sector only, as opposed to being representative of the entire emissions baseline for 2010. The calculations provided in these sections therefore rely upon the baseline emissions indicated in the historical datasets for Botswana, as opposed to the NDC.