Power sector in 2030

Botswana’s power sector is overwhelmingly dominated by fossil fuels – mostly coal. Solar, biogas, and biodiesel sources contribute only around 0.1-1% to the national power mix (as of 2019).^1,14 99.7-99.9% of the power supply in 2015 was produced from coal.^9,14 The remaining power demand is met by importing petroleum products from Southern African countries to further supply thermal power stations.⁹

1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that the country will need to rapidly and extensively reduce its reliance on coal from almost 100% in 2019 to being fully phased out of Botswana’s power sector by around 2030. Similarly, carbon intensity would need to drop from 1260 gCO₂/kWh in 2019 to between 210 to 450 gCO₂/kWh by 2030, and be at zero by 2040 at the latest. In other words, carbon intensity would need to be cut by at least 35% by 2030.

The share of renewable energy in the power sector would also need to increase rapidly, from almost 0% in 2019 to 43-69% in 2030. By 2050, renewable energy sources could contribute 99-100% of the power share. This could be facilitated by the introduction of sustainable biomass energy, which, depending on the scenario, could contribute up to 50% of the power mix between 2030-2040.

These pathways stand in contrast with Botswana’s current energy goals. But Botswana aims to generate only 200 MW of renewable energy out of the total 1400 MW projected to be produced in 2025.⁷ This would be equivalent to only a 14.28% share of renewable energy in the national power mix. The country has explicitly articulated its aim to have 15% of its energy mix supplied from renewables by 2030, and up to 50% by 2036.^11,15 These are well below the required share of renewable energy needed to be compatible with 1.5°C pathways.

The country aims to boost its coal production and to increase its coal capacities in the coming years, with a current pipeline of 2.8 GW planned to reduce its power imports from South Africa mostly due to the demand from its diamond industry.

The planned and operational solar power stations, alongside the biogas plants proposed for construction by 2030 as part of Botswana’s Third National Communication, also only amount to around 219 MW of renewable energy capacity.³ The country has also indicated its intention to introduce fossil gas capacities, which may supply about 20% of the energy mix by 2040.¹⁵

When combined with the plans to increase coal mining and electricity generation capacities — seen through the awarding of three coal plant generation licenses in 2020 — Botswana currently falls well short of 1.5°C compatible pathways for the power sector.¹⁰ Upscaling coal activities and seeking to introduce fossil gas capacities will risk creating high-cost stranded assets that will require a more aggressive phase-out of fossil fuels in the coming decades.

Towards a fully decarbonised power sector

The carbon intensity of Botswana’s power sector would need to reduce from 1260 gCO₂/kWh in 2019 to zero by between 2026 to 2040 to be 1.5°C compatible. This will be driven by the complete phase-out of coal from the power mix by around 2030, with renewable energy contributing 99-100% of the national power mix by 2050.

The power sector decarbonisation will almost exclusively be driven by the uptake of renewable energy, with solar power, wind energy, and biogas-to-energy plants currently offering the greatest upscaling potential.^3,9,12 Sustainable biomass energy may also support in facilitating the phase-out of coal.

However, Botswana’s intentions to continue pursuing coal mining for domestic power generation and international exports, as well as its intentions to introduce natural gas to the energy mix, put the country at risk of significant carbon lock-in and subsequent high-value stranded assets in the power sector, while also rendering the sector increasingly difficult to decarbonise, complicating the country’s route to being 1.5°C compatible.^7,15

¹ Ministry of Environment Natural Resources Conservation and Tourism. Botswana’s First Biennial Update Report (BUR) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. (2019).

² Government of Botswana. Botswana Intended Nationally Determined Contribution. (2016).

³ Ministry of Environment Natural Resources Conservation and Tourism. Botswana’s Third National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. (2019).

⁴ BITC Research Department. Investment Opportunities in the Coal Sector: Investor Factsheet. (2016).

⁵ International Energy Agency. Botswana: Data Browser. International Energy Agency. (2022).

⁶ Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Paris Reality Check: PRIMAP-hist. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. (2021).

⁷ Government of Botswana. National Development Plan 11. (2017).

⁸ Benza, B. Botswana’s state-owned coal miner aims to boost output by 35%. Reuters. (2021).

⁹ United Nations Environment Programme. Energy Profile: Botswana.

¹⁰ Bungane, B. Botswana grants first ever generation licenses to IPPs. ESI Africa. (2020).

¹¹ Dabla, N., Zeyi, B., Wanjiru, E. N., Fichaux, N. & Mabowe, B. Renewables Readiness Assessment: Botswana. (2021).

¹² Ministry of Mineral Resources, G. T. and E. S. National Energy Policy. (2021).

¹³ Adedoyin, A. et al. Botswana Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventories for Biennial Update Report (BUR). (2016).

¹⁴ African Development Bank Group. Botswana – Botswana Renewable Energy Support Project – Project Appraisal Report. African Development Bank Group. (2022).

¹⁵ Government of the Republic of Botswana. Integrated Resource Plan for Electricity for Botswana. (2020).

¹⁶ Benza, B. India’s Jindal plans to start building Botswana coal mine in 2022. Reuters. (2021).

¹⁷ Benza, B. Botswana plans $2.5 bln coal-to-liquids plant to cut fuel imports. Reuters (2022).

¹⁸ Ministry of Transport and Communications. National Integrated Transport Policy – White Paper. (2011).-

¹⁹ While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.

²⁰ It should also be noted that there are significant discrepancies between the base year emissions expressed in the NDC and in historical datasets. The NDC indicates 2010 emissions as 8.3 MtCO₂e, while historical datasets puts the value at 27 MtCO₂e. The NDC, however, does not account for significant sources of CH₄ emissions from the agriculture sector, and aims to realise its mitigations from the energy sector exclusively. To this end, we have interpreted the baseline indicated in the NDC as being comparable to the energy sector only, as opposed to being representative of the entire emissions baseline for 2010. The calculations provided in these sections therefore rely upon the baseline emissions indicated in the historical datasets for Botswana, as opposed to the NDC.