Botswana’s current NDC targets a 15% reduction in emissions below 2010 levels by 2030. The NDC covers energy, waste and agriculture sectors but notably excludes methane emissions from enteric fermentation, which accounted for around 15% of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2015. Industry processes, which accounted for roughly around 10% of emissions in 2015 and is projected to grow, is also not covered by Botswana’s NDC.
To be 1.5°C compatible, the country would need to reduce total GHG emissions to be between 12-15 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030, which is equivalent to a total emissions reduction of between 46-57% relative to 2010 levels, excluding LULUCF.
The implementation of Botswana’s 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway could be made possible with and through international support to close the gap between its fair share level and domestic emissions level. While Botswana’s NDC does not specify the level of reductions requiring financial support and the level of reductions it aims to reach domestically, it states the need for international support.
In its NDC, Botswana has indicated that it will develop a long term low-carbon strategy. This has not been elaborated upon since the submission of the NDC in 2016. The country has further integrated climate change considerations into medium- and longer-term national plans, including the NDP (which runs from 2017-2023), and Vision 2036, which is the national agenda that will guide the country’s development plans and activities for the coming years.
Our analysis of 1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that the country would need to emit no more than 10 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050 (excl. LULUCF). This is equivalent to emissions reductions of 62% below 2010 levels by 2050.
According to some scenarios, the energy sector would be the first to decarbonise, and offers the greatest potential in facilitating emissions reductions. Remaining emissions will mostly come from the agriculture sector alongside minor contributions from the waste and industrial processes sectors.