Transport by road is the primary form of mobility for the majority of people in Zimbabwe, as well as for the distribution of goods around this land-locked country. Transport by rail, air, and boat (on dams and rivers) makes up a small percentage overall. The sector is completely dominated by fossil fuels, predominantly oil (94.5% in 2019) and biofuels (4.6%); there was no electricity in the mix in 2019. Transport emissions increased by 16% during the period 2000-2017.⁵ Even so, the small scale of the sector means it produces only 8% of the country’s GHG emissions.

In conjunction with EVs, hydrogen is only mentioned once, in Zimbabwe’s 2019 LTS, and it appears with the provision of “feasible over the long-term with sufficient technical and financial support”. The LTS also models EV roll-out, but notes that the linked electricity demand projections have not been incorporated into the planning of the national power system.¹ The more recent BUR and revised NDC make no mention of hydrogen.

In all the scenarios, the sector is close to fully decarbonised (less than 5 gCO₂/MJ) between 2034 and 2037. Decarbonisation of the sector will be mostly driven by electrification and increased share of biofuels in the fuel mix, reaching 7-27% by 2030 and 50-82% by 2030 respectively.

¹ Ministry of Environment Climate Tourism and Hospitality Industry. Long-term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy (2020-2050). (2019).

² Republic of Zimbabwe. Revised Nationally Determined Contribution. (2021).

³ Zimbabwe Power Company. Hwange Power Station – Zimbabwe Power Company.

⁴ Ministry of Environment Water and Climate. Zimbabwe’s Third National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. (2016).

⁵ Ministry of Environment Climate Tourism and Hospitality Industry. Zimbabwe’s First Biennial Update Report to the UNFCCC. (2020).

⁶ Ministry of Finance and Economic Development. National Development Strategy 1 (NDS1) 2021-2025. (2019).

⁷ UNDP. Bright days ahead as the National Energy Policy is unveiled in Zimbabwe. (2012).

⁸ Murwira, S. “No electricity for cooking”: Droughts in Zimbabwe cut the lights in poor households – climatetracker. Climate Tracker (2021).

⁹ Ministry of Energy and Power Development. National Renewable Energy Policy. (Ministry of Energy and Power Development, 2019).

¹⁰ South Africa’s Eskom supplies Zimbabwe with 400 megawatts of power | Africanews.

¹¹ Ministry of Energy and Power Development. National Renewable Energy Policy. vol. 1 (2019).

¹² WorldBank. Access to electricity (% of population) – Zimbabwe | Data. (2021).

¹³ IEA. Zimbabwe Country Profile. IEA – Countries & Regions. (2022).

¹⁴ See assumptions for the NDC quantification here: https://1p5ndc-pathways.climateanalytics.org/methodology/#zwe-ndc

¹⁵ Global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C tend to include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches, and often rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. The scenarios available at the time of this analysis focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology, and our downscaling methods do not yet take national BECCS potentials into account.

¹⁶ Global Forest Watch. Zimbabwe. GFW. (2022).