Zimbabwe’s first NDC contained a 33% reduction in the emissions from the energy sector only, whereas the revised 2021 NDC includes emissions from waste, IPPU and AFOLU in its mitigation target of 40% reduction in per capita GHG emissions below BAU by 2030 (projected to be 44.7 MtCO₂e) when including LULUCF. When excluding LULUCF, this target is equivalent to emissions 57% above 2015 levels by 2030.
Despite this increase in ambition from the previous NDC, Zimbabwe’s revised NDC is not yet in line with mitigation efforts required to be on a 1.5°C pathway. Analysed pathways show that this would require reductions of 46% (39% – 53%) below 2015 levels or absolute emissions of only 14 (12-15) MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 (excluding LULUCF). International support will be needed to help the country implement a 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway.
Long term pathway
Zimbabwe’s Long-Term Strategy (LTS) for 2020-2050 includes a goal to reduce emissions by up to 33 MtCO₂e by 2050, or around 50% of BAU GHG emissions. Reductions from the AFOLU sector are expected to provide nearly half of the abatement (47%), followed by those from the energy (44%), waste (6.1%), and IPPU (2.7%) sectors.
When excluding LULUCF, 1.5°C compatible pathways would require reductions of 68% below 2015 levels by 2050 or an emissions level of around 8 MtCO₂e.
Even with reduced emissions in the period to 2050, AFOLU remains a predominant emitting sector while the energy sector is the first sector to decarbonise; thus the need to focus on these areas.