Zimbabwe’s First Biennial Update Report published in 2020 shows that the AFOLU sector was the country’s largest source of GHG emissions (62%) with LULUCF emissions making up the lion’s share (50% of total GHG emissions).⁵ While the country also benefits from a large carbon sink, the net reported emissions remained positive in 2017. This is mostly driven by deforestation due to shifting to agriculture as well as forest harvesting.^5,16 In agriculture, cattle and other livestock are the main driver of emissions.

Emissions from the energy sector contribute 35% to total GHG emissions, with electricity production and transport accounting for most of it (19% and 8% respectively). Emissions from the IPPU and waste sectors were very small in comparison (1.9% and 1.5% of total GHG emissions).⁵

Since 1990, the proportion of GHG emissions from the energy sector has remained fairly stable, while AFOLU emissions have fluctuated more noticeably – driven by biomass burning on forested land due to droughts and economic necessity.^2,5 Zimbabwe’s forestry resources cover approximately 46% of the total land area (179,748 km²) so addressing these emissions is essential to mitigation.²

The National Development Strategy (NDS1), 2021-2025, aims to increase electricity and coal supply to the iron and steel sectors, both of which will lead to an upward trajectory in emissions under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario.⁶

¹ Ministry of Environment Climate Tourism and Hospitality Industry. Long-term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy (2020-2050). (2019).

² Republic of Zimbabwe. Revised Nationally Determined Contribution. (2021).

³ Zimbabwe Power Company. Hwange Power Station – Zimbabwe Power Company.

⁴ Ministry of Environment Water and Climate. Zimbabwe’s Third National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. (2016).

⁵ Ministry of Environment Climate Tourism and Hospitality Industry. Zimbabwe’s First Biennial Update Report to the UNFCCC. (2020).

⁶ Ministry of Finance and Economic Development. National Development Strategy 1 (NDS1) 2021-2025. (2019).

⁷ UNDP. Bright days ahead as the National Energy Policy is unveiled in Zimbabwe. (2012).

⁸ Murwira, S. “No electricity for cooking”: Droughts in Zimbabwe cut the lights in poor households – climatetracker. Climate Tracker (2021).

⁹ Ministry of Energy and Power Development. National Renewable Energy Policy. (Ministry of Energy and Power Development, 2019).

¹⁰ South Africa’s Eskom supplies Zimbabwe with 400 megawatts of power | Africanews.

¹¹ Ministry of Energy and Power Development. National Renewable Energy Policy. vol. 1 (2019).

¹² WorldBank. Access to electricity (% of population) – Zimbabwe | Data. (2021).

¹³ IEA. Zimbabwe Country Profile. IEA – Countries & Regions. (2022).

¹⁴ See assumptions for the NDC quantification here: https://1p5ndc-pathways.climateanalytics.org/methodology/#zwe-ndc

¹⁵ Global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C tend to include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches, and often rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. The scenarios available at the time of this analysis focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology, and our downscaling methods do not yet take national BECCS potentials into account.

¹⁶ Global Forest Watch. Zimbabwe. GFW. (2022).