In its updated NDC (July 2021), Tanzania aims to reduce GHG emissions by 30-35% by 2030, equivalent to around 0-7% below 2014 levels including LUUCF. This translates in emissions of 12% below to 24% above 2015 levels excluding LULUCF.
Analysed 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathways indicates that Tanzania would need to reduce its emissions by 11-38% below 2015 levels or reach emission levels of 54-77 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 excluding LULUCF.
International support will be needed to help the country implement a 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway, which requires a reduction of 11-38% below 2015 levels by 2030 (or 54-77 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030) while still meeting the country’s growing energy demand.
Long term pathway
Tanzania had, as of March 2022, not submitted a long-term decarbonisation strategy. The land and agriculture sectors overall are the main contributors to GHG emissions and would be key in the decarbonisation of Tanzania’s economy and society. Decarbonising the energy sector would also need to be prioritised, as its currently dominated by traditional biomass use (80% of total energy consumption) (mostly for cooking and heating).
1.5°C compatible pathways would require the country to reduce its GHG emissions by 20-51% below 2015 levels by 2050 or 42-69 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050. Tanzania will need to implement stringent policies to reduce its LULUCF emissions driven by deforestation due to shifting to agriculture use. While Tanzania’s previous NDC stated that over 54% of its land is forested, deforestation has been on an increasing trend these past 4 years.