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Current situation

What is Tanzaniaʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Emissions profile

LULUCF and agriculture are the main sources of emissions (41% for LULUCF and 38% for agriculture in 2019). The energy sector follows at around 13% and waste at 6%. Agriculture sector emits mostly methane, driven largely by livestock.4,5 Emissions in the energy sector are mostly from fossil fuels – gas and oil used in electricity generation and transport. The country still relies heavily on use of traditional biomass, mainly for cooking.4,5

NDC projections indicate that emissions will rise to 138-153 MtCO₂e by 2030 in a business-as-usual scenario.2

1 United Republic of Tanzania. Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). (Vice President’s Office, Union and Environment, 2021).

2 United Republic of Tanzania. Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC). (2015).

3 Energy and Water Utilities Regulatory Authority. Electricity Infrastructure. (2021).

4 United Republic of Tanzania (URT). National Climate Change Response Strategy (2021-2026). (2021).

5 National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), T. National Climate Change Statistics Report. (2019).

6 IEA. Tanzania Country Profile. Key Energy Statistics.(2020).

7 United Republic of Tanzania. National Five Year Development Plan 2016/17-2020/21: Nurturing Industrialization for Economic Transformation and Human Development. (2016).

8 United Republic of Tanzania. National Energy Policy. (Ministry of Energy and Minerals, 2015).

9 Irene Garcia, Anna Leidreiter, Joachim Fünfgelt, Sixbert Mwanga & Msololo Onditi. Policy Roadmap for 100% Renewable Energy and Poverty Eradication in Tanzania. (2017).

10 United Republic of Tanzania. Voluntary National Review (VNR) 2019. (2019).

11 IRENA. Innovation Landscape Brief:Pay-as-you-go models. (2020).

12 See assumptions here: https://1p5ndc-pathways.climateanalytics.org/staging/methodology/#tza-ndc

13 Global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C tend to include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches, and often rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. The scenarios available at the time of this analysis focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology, and our downscaling methods do not yet take national BECCS potentials into account.

Tanzaniaʼs current GHG emissions

MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

By sector

  • Transport
  • Other
  • Fugitive emissions
  • Industry (energy use)
  • Power
  • Buildings
  • LULUCF
  • Agriculture
  • Waste
  • Industry (processes)
Energy (13%)0

By gas

  • CO₂
  • CH₄
  • N₂O
  • Other
00

Sectors by gas

Energy
00
Agriculture
062%0
Industry (processes)
083%0

Energy system

Tanzania’s energy is dominated by traditional biomass. Biomass accounted for 82% of its total energy supply in 2019, followed by oil and gas at 12% and 3%, respectively and renewable energy that includes hydro, wind and solar making up the remaining 3%.6 The majority of the population (around 70%) living in rural areas rely on biomass for cooking and heating thus the government has prioritised electrification to enable a shift to electricity for cooking.7,8 In the power sector, renewables made up around 34% in 2019.3

According to its national energy policy, Tanzania has an estimated hydro potential of up to 4.7GW. In 2021 it had only 573.7 MW (around 12%) hydro capacity installed.4,8 It plans to increase generation from renewable sources such as geothermal, hydro and solar.2,7,8 Tanzania also plans to ramp up investment in natural gas and coal to reach 6700MW (33%) and 5300 (26%) by 2044. In 2021 coal was less than 1% of its power generation.4 Further investments in fossil fuels risk locking the country in high carbon intensive pathway.7,8 In May 2021, Tanzania and Uganda signed an agreement of the East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline signalling continued investment in fossil fuels.8 This further puts into question its commitment to low-carbon development.

Targets and commitments

Note: Sectoral targets and policies are not detailed in Tanzania’s updated NDC. Reported targets and policies here are from Tanzania’s Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS).

Economy-wide targets

Target type

Baseline scenario target

NDC target

Conditional NDC Target:

  • 30-35% below BAU (incl. LULUCF) by 2030 or around 0-7% below 2014 levels.1
  • This translates in 12% below to 24% above 2015 levels by 2030 when excluding LULUCF emissions.12

Market mechanism

  • Tanzania intends to use market mechanisms, stating in its updated NDC that these can contribute to emission reduction.

Long-term target

  • Tanzania has not yet provided a long-term strategy but the updated NDC makes subtle reference to a low carbon resilient future in addition to media reports of its commitment to net-zero by 2050.1,9

Sector coverage

EnergyIndustryWasteAgricultureLULUCF

Greenhouse gas coverage

CO₂CH₄N₂O

Sectoral targets

Energy

  • Energy targets include geothermal (650 MW), solar (4.5 GW – installed capacity of 562 MW), hydro and wind energy.1,4
  • There is a set target of 70% renewable energy by 2025/26 but this is inclusive of natural gas.1,7 Tanzania has considerable natural gas prospects of 57 trillion cubic feet in recently discovered reserves of which only around 100 million cubic feet has been exploited to produce 527 MW.1
  • The National 5-yr Development Plan (FYDP) of 2016/17-2020/21 states that 50 % of Tanzania’s energy will be from renewables.7 The energy policy outlines measures such as energy efficiency, increased electrification to meet its energy access for all targets.2,4,8 A 10% reduction in biomass consumption by 2025 as outlined in the National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS) is also set to contribute to reduced emissions.4

Power

  • A target is not quantified.
  • The NCCRS envisages a 25% increase in power generation from renewables by 2025.4

Transport

  • A specific target is not set.
  • The NCCRS states that Tanzania is set to expand its BRT network, develop NMT and invest in ‘low emission transport systems’ to lower its emissions.4

Buildings

  • Target not specified.
  • The NCCRS outlines the promotion of green buildings as one of its strategies targeting 40% of new buildings.4

Waste

  • Target not specified but the NCCRS has set out to ensure the increased generation of energy from waste by 10% and effective wastewater management for 60% of cities and municipal councils by 2026.4

Agriculture

  • Target not specified.
  • NCCRS outlines the development of a Livestock Management plan and setting in place pastoral pastureland co-management plans by 2026 to contribute to mitigation efforts.

LULUCF

  • Emission reduction of 30% below 2020 level by 20264. This will be achieved through implementation of REDD+ activities.4
  • The FYDP envisages planting of 280 million trees annually to meet its targets.7 Progress on this remains unclear.

Footnotes