Power sector in 2030
Mozambique’s power sector is dominated by hydropower, alongside minor production capacities from gas and oil thermal plants.4 86% of the country’s electricity production in 2015 was sourced from hydropower, followed by 13% from gas, and 1% from oil.4 Fossil gas has seen an increase in the past years reaching a level of 20% in 2019.
If this trend continues, it could lock the country in a carbon intensive pathway. 1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that Mozambique would need to reduce its reliance on natural gas and oil from 20% of the power mix in 2019 to a maximum of 2% by 2030. Similarly, carbon intensity would need to drop from 80 gCO₂/kWh in 2019 to a maximum of 10 gCO₂/kWh by 2030, and full decarbonisation by 2033, representing an 89-100% reduction in the sector’s carbon intensity.
This stands in contrast with the country’s NDC target of adding at least 450 MW of new natural gas capacities by 2025. Other reports indicate the intention to increase natural gas supplies to 3.25 GW by 2030.8 Mozambique is heavily investing in natural gas, and is expected to become the world’s third largest natural gas exporter by 2023, which puts the country at risk of being stuck with stranded assets requiring high upfront investments, considering that natural gas would need to be fully phased out in the following decade.7
Mozambique’s NDC also aims to promote renewable energy sources with a total capacity of 567 MW by 2025. With Mozambique’s total installed generating capacity at 2.6 GW in 2016, it is likely that the aforementioned renewable energy target would need to be enhanced to comply with 1.5°C compatible pathways, especially when the intended addition of natural gas thermal plants are included.
Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
The carbon intensity of Mozambique’s power sector would need to reduce from 80gCO₂/kWh in 2019 to zero by 2033 at the latest to be 1.5°C compatible. This could be driven by the complete phase-out of natural gas from the power mix by no later than 2033, and other unabated fossil fuels around 2030. Renewable energies should contribute 100% of the national power mix by 2040, already reaching a level of 79% in 2019, mostly based on hydropower.
The power sector decarbonisation will almost exclusively be driven by the uptake of renewable energy, with solar, hydropower and wind power offering the greatest potentials and sources for upscaling.4
However, Mozambique’s intentions to considerably increase its natural gas production capacities, as indicated by the ongoing USD 20 billion Mozambique LNG Project, and the target to construct 3.25 GW of natural gas thermal plants by 2030, risks locking in a carbon intensive pathway and creating stranded assets.3
1 Government of Mozambique. Updated First National Determined Contribution of Mozambique. (2021).
2 USAID. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Mozambique. (2017).
3 Mozambique LNG. About the Mozambique Liquefied Natural Gas Project. Total Energies. (2020).
4 Mokveld, K. & von Eije, S. Final Energy Report Mozambique. (2018).
5 van der Plas, R. J. et al. Mozambique Biomass Energy Strategy. (2012).
6 IEA. Mozambique Key Energy Statistics, 2019. International Energy Agency. (2022).
7 UN Environment Programme. Protecting the environment in Mozambique’s emerging oil and gas sector. UN Environment Programme UN Environment Programme (2019).
8 Government of Mozambique. Plano de Acção Tecnológica e Ideias de Projecto: Tecnologias de Geração de Electricidade e de Gestão e Tratamento de Resíduos Sólidos Urbanos.(2018).
9 Inter Institutional Group on Climate Change. National Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Strategy. (2021).
10 See assumptions here: 1p5ndc-pathways.climateanalytics.org/methodology/#moz-ndc
11 Global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C tend to include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches, and often rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. The scenarios available at the time of this analysis focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology, and our downscaling methods do not yet take national BECCS potentials into account.
12 It should be noted that as of March 2022, Total Energies has declared force majeure on the Mozambique LNG Project due to the prevailing security situation in Cabo Delgado province, where the Project is situated. The future of the Project is therefore uncertain.
Mozambiqueʼs power mix
terawatt-hour per year
- Negative emissions technologies via BECCS
- Unabated fossil
- Nuclear and/or fossil with CCS
- Renewables incl. biomass
Mozambiqueʼs power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
- Historical emissions
- SSP1 High CDR reliance
- SSP1 Low CDR reliance
- High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
- Low energy demand
- 100%RE
1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Mozambique
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Decarbonised power sector by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Carbon intensity of power gCO₂/kWh | 80 | 0 to 10 | −10 to 0 | −20 | 2027 to 2033 |
Relative to reference year in % | −100 to −89% | −108 to −100% | −128 to −123% |
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Year of phase-out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Share of unabated coal Percent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Share of unabated gas Percent | 20 | 0 to 2 | 0 | 0 | 2028 to 2033 |
Share of renewable energy Percent | 79 | 98 to 100 | 100 | 100 | |
Share of unabated fossil fuel Percent | 21 | 0 to 2 | 0 | 0 |
Investments
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time. See the power section for capacities deployment under the various models.
Mozambiqueʼs renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Mozambique to be on the order of approximately USD 0.9 to 4.3 billion by 2030 and 2.7 to 16.9 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors, growing energy demand, and expansion of electricity access. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.