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Current situation

What is Mozambiqueʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Emissions profile

According to Mozambique’s updated NDC, LULUCF is the largest contributor to national emissions by a significant margin, accounting for 70% of the 149 MtCO₂e emitted in 2019. This is followed by the energy and agriculture sectors, responsible for 12% of the 2019 emissions each. The Waste and Industry Processes and Product Use (IPPU) Sectors contributed the least to national emissions, collectively accounting for 4% of total national emissions.

Between 1990 and 2013, the IPPU sector experienced the largest annual growth in emissions at 26%, followed by waste (8%), energy (2%), agriculture (1.5%), and LULUCF (0.5%).2

The country continues to experience deforestation rates of 0.5-1.5% per year, mainly due to timber extraction and agricultural conversion. This is imposing further constrains on the country’s extensive forest cover, which encompasses roughly 50% of the territory, and could further exacerbate LULUCF and agriculture related national emissions.

Lastly, with the discovery of significant natural gas reserves in 2010, Mozambique has been extensively developing its production and export capacities of the fossil fuel. This is demonstrated by the Mozambique LNG Project, which has seen over USD 20 billion invested in the resource off the coast of Northern Mozambique to tap into 65 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas.3 It is also noteworthy that the lead operator of the project is the foreign multinational corporation Total Energies.12 Such projects will likely increase national emissions from the energy sector significantly, and lock the country in a high carbon future.

1 Government of Mozambique. Updated First National Determined Contribution of Mozambique. (2021).

2 USAID. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Mozambique. (2017).

3 Mozambique LNG. About the Mozambique Liquefied Natural Gas Project. Total Energies. (2020).

4 Mokveld, K. & von Eije, S. Final Energy Report Mozambique. (2018).

5 van der Plas, R. J. et al. Mozambique Biomass Energy Strategy. (2012).

6 IEA. Mozambique Key Energy Statistics, 2019. International Energy Agency. (2022).

7 UN Environment Programme. Protecting the environment in Mozambique’s emerging oil and gas sector. UN Environment Programme UN Environment Programme (2019).

8 Government of Mozambique. Plano de Acção Tecnológica e Ideias de Projecto: Tecnologias de Geração de Electricidade e de Gestão e Tratamento de Resíduos Sólidos Urbanos.(2018).

9 Inter Institutional Group on Climate Change. National Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Strategy. (2021).

10 See assumptions here: https://1p5ndc-pathways.climateanalytics.org/methodology/#moz-ndc

11 Global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C tend to include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches, and often rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. The scenarios available at the time of this analysis focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology, and our downscaling methods do not yet take national BECCS potentials into account.

12 It should be noted that as of March 2022, Total Energies has declared force majeure on the Mozambique LNG Project due to the prevailing security situation in Cabo Delgado province, where the Project is situated. The future of the Project is therefore uncertain.

Mozambiqueʼs current GHG emissions

MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

By sector

  • Fugitive emissions
  • Transport
  • Power
  • Industry (energy use)
  • Other
  • Buildings
  • LULUCF
  • Agriculture
  • Waste
  • Industry (processes)
Energy (12%)70%0

By gas

  • CO₂
  • CH₄
  • N₂O
  • Other
077%0

Sectors by gas

Energy
00
Agriculture
00
Industry (processes)
067%0

Energy system

Emissions in the energy sector are driven by rapidly rising energy demand, which is growing at 7-8% per annum. In terms of electricity use per sector, 70% of the electricity consumed in Mozambique is by the industry sector, followed by the residential sector (12%), and commercial and public services (5%).4

Traditional biomass energy continues to account for the majority of overall energy consumption in Mozambique. It is estimated that 80% of total energy consumption in the country was sourced from biomass in 20125, with key sources including wood fuel and charcoal.

As of 2018, 67% of Mozambique’s total energy supply was from biofuels and waste. This is followed by oil, at 15%, and hydropower at 11%. Natural gas contributed the least to the fuel mix, at 7%.6

Despite the low supply from natural gas, Mozambique has invested heavily in the fuel recently. This is indicated by the over USD 20 billion investment in the Mozambique LNG Project in the north of the country. The country is expected to become the world’s third largest natural gas exporter by 2023.7 Mozambique’s current strategy and trajectory surrounding enhanced natural gas production risks locking in a carbon intensive pathway, and simultaneously creating high-cost stranded assets for the country.

Targets and commitments

Economy-wide targets

Target type

Baseline scenario target

NDC target

Conditional NDC target:

  • Cumulative reduction of 40 MtCO₂e in emissions between 2020 and 2025 (excl. LULUCF).1
  • There is no base year provided. Instead, the reductions will be compared to BAU emissions scenarios for the implemented measures. Excluding LULUCF, the BAU for 2025 is projected to be about 54 MtCO₂e.
  • This would translate in emissions increase of 11% above 2015 levels.

Note: “The implementation of any proposed reduction is conditional on the provision of financial, technological and capacity building support from the international community”.1The total investment required in 2020-2025 to meet this target and other activities stipulated in the NDC is estimated at USD 7.586 billion. The NDC does not articulate how much of this investment needs to be provided by the international community.

Market mechanism

  • Encouraging investors to evaluate GHG emissions in investment projects.1
  • Mozambique supports the use of market mechanisms such as:1
    • Certified Emissions Reductions (CERs) generated by CDM projects and programmes.
    • Carbon market efforts.
    • Further development of accounting rules within the UNFCCC to ensure environmental integrity of market mechanisms, and avoid double counting.

Long-term target

  • In the updated NDC, Mozambique articulates that it has received support from the NDC Partnership – Climate Action Enhancement Package to develop its Long-Term Low Carbon Development Strategy (2020-2050).1 This is currently not publicly available.

Sector coverage

EnergyIndustryWasteAgriculture

Greenhouse gas coverage

CO₂CH₄N₂O

Sectoral targets

Energy

  • Apply and disseminate production techniques and improved use of firewood and charcoal sustainability.1
  • Build five natural gas combined cycle thermal plants (650 MW each) by 2030.8
  • Promote projects and programmes of microgeneration of energy in the industrial sector.1
  • Replace 2,500,000 incandescent lamps with efficient lamps for residents in Maputo.1
  • Increase the number of people with access to cooking gas by 309.02% compared to current levels in Cabo Delgado, Zambezia, and Nampula e Tete provinces.1

Transport

  • Repair 150 natural gas (NG) buses for public transport in Maputo.1
  • Expand the Metrobus to Maputo, Beira, and Nampula.1
  • Import 150 Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) buses.1
  • Convert 1000 cars to NG.1

Waste

  • Implement the Technological Action Plan and Project Ideas for Solid Urban Waste Management and Treatment.1
  • Install solid waste recycling industries under “PRONAL”.1
  • Promote sustainable waste management (NAMA Waste) across the country.1
  • Build a landfill with the capacity to treat 500 tons of MSW daily for Beira and Dondo cities.8
  • Build one landfill bioreactor with capacity to treat 1500 tons of MSW daily in Maputo Metropolitan Area.8
  • Build one classic landfill with the capacity to treat 500 tons of MSW daily in Nampula City.8
  • Build 8 Pyrolytic Treatment Units with the capacity for daily processing of 70-270 tons, with one each in Xai-xai, Inhambane, Chimoio, Tete, Quelimane, Nacala, Lichinga and Pemba.8

LULUCF

  • Increase the number of productive national forests accounted for and monitored by the Government of Mozambique by 28.5 billion ha by 2025.5
  • Reduce deforestation and wildfires by exploiting forests in a sustainable manner, to maximize their potential for carbon capture and sequestration; promoting mechanisms leading to the natural regeneration of forests; creating mechanisms to prevent the spread of fires.9
  • Afforestation components were not included in the updated NDC due to uncertainties regarding calculations of related emissions and emissions reductions under the Paris Agreement.1

Power

  • Construct 10 Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) supply stations.1
  • Import 1000 kits and conversion cylinders for Natural Gas (NG).1
  • Construct 450 MW Natural Gas power plant in Inhambane or Temane.1
  • Power 5000 refrigerators for domestic use through photovoltaic or wind power in homes in areas isolated from the national electric grid.1
  • Install 5000 Solar PV systems for pumping water for domestic, community, or public use in areas isolated from the grid, or mixed access to the grid.1
  • Install 50,000 PV or wind turbine lighting systems in areas isolated from the national electric grid.1
  • Promotion of 258.923 MW of PV energy.1
  • Promotion of 240 MW of wind energy.1
  • Promotion of 67.995 MW of hydroelectric power.1

Buildings

  • No quantified sectoral targets available.
  • Create Industrial Research and Development Centers.1
  • Control of industrial emissions:
    • Develop enforcement policies and measures, and regulating industrial activity to monitor compliance with national legislation and international conventions.9
    • Encourage investors to evaluate the potential GHG emissions from projects.1
    • Promote micro-generation projects and programmes in the energy industry.9

Agriculture

  • No quantified sectoral targets available.
  • Promote renewable energy use for irrigation and water pumping systems.1
  • Promote the use of methane from rice cultivation systems for energy production and improved low emission rice production systems.1
  • Apply and expand agricultural production techniques of a conservationist and soil protection nature, such as the use of direct planting.1
  • Development of low-carbon agricultural practices: promote the collection and bio-digestion of animal and plant waste to increase the availability of methane for power generation.1

Footnotes