Economy wide
While analysed 1.5°C compatible pathways indicate a wide range of emissions levels by 2030, they all show the need to reduce emissions by 2-14 MtCO₂e/yr relative to 2015 levels — equivalent to a 6-38% reduction by 2030. With international support, Mozambique will be able to implement its domestic emissions pathway in line with Paris Agreement compatible pathways.
Mozambiqueʼs total GHG emissions
excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
- 1.5°C compatible pathways
- Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
- Current policy projections
- 1.5°C emissions range
- Historical emissions
2030 NDC
Mozambique’s updated NDC aims for a cumulative emissions reduction of 40 MtCO₂e between 2020 and 2025 (excl. LULUCF).1 This would result in an 11% increase in emissions relative to 2015 levels or a level of emissions of 38 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030.18 In the updated NDC, Mozambique articulates that it has received support from the NDC Partnership Climate Action Enhancement Package to develop its Long-Term Low Carbon Development Strategy (2020-2050).1 However, this strategy is currently not publicly available.
1 Government of Mozambique. Updated First National Determined Contribution of Mozambique. (2021).
2 IEA. Mozambique Key Energy Statistics, 2019. International Energy Agency. (2022).
3 United Nations Environment Programme. Mozambique Agrees to a National Electric Mobility Strategy: 7 November 2019. United Nations Environment Programme. (2019).
4 USAID. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Mozambique. (2017).
5 Republic of Mozambique. Agenda Estratégica 2019-2-35 e Programa Nacional de Florestas Moçambique. (2019).
6 Mozambique LNG. About the Mozambique Liquefied Natural Gas Project. Total Energies. (2020).
7 Mokveld, K. & von Eije, S. Final Energy Report Mozambique. (2018).
8 IEA. Energy Statistics Data Browser. IEA. (2022).
9 van der Plas, R. J. et al. Mozambique Biomass Energy Strategy. (2012).
10 Nhede, N. Mozambique President Officially Launches Coral Sul FLNG Project. Energy Capital & Power. (2022).
11 Global Energy Monitor. Mozambique LNG Terminal. Global Fossil Infrastructure Tracker. (2023).
12 Global Energy Monitor. Rovuma LNG Terminal. Global Fossil Infrastructure Tracker. (2023).
13 UN Environment Programme. Protecting the environment in Mozambique’s emerging oil and gas sector. UN Environment Programme UN Environment Programme (2019).
14 Government of Mozambique. Plano de Acção Tecnológica e Ideias de Projecto: Tecnologias de Geração de Electricidade e de Gestão e Tratamento de Resíduos Sólidos Urbanos. (2018).
15 Inter Institutional Group on Climate Change. National Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Strategy. (2021).
16 World Bank, IRENA, UNSD & WHO. Access to electricity (% of population) – Mozambique. (2023).
17 World Bank, IEA, UNSD & WHO. Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (% of population) – Mozambique. (2023).
19 Global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C tend to include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches, and often rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. The scenarios available at the time of this analysis focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology, and our downscaling methods do not yet take national BECCS potentials into account.
20 It should be noted that as of March 2022, Total Energies has declared force majeure on the Mozambique LNG Project due to the prevailing security situation in Cabo Delgado province, where the Project is situated. The future of the Project is therefore uncertain.
Decarbonisation
Analysed scenarios show the energy sector decarbonising first, between 2040 and 2060, while others show the IPPU sector being the first to fully decarbonise by around 2040. In all scenarios, agriculture persists as a significant source of emissions beyond 2050, while the waste sector is also a minor contributor in certain scenarios.
2050 Ambition
By 2050, the country would need to reduce its emissions to between 18-26 MtCO₂e to be compatible with 1.5°C pathways, equivalent to a 32-54% reduction in emissions relative to 2015 levels.18
Land-use and forestry
Efforts to reduce LULUCF emissions, including expanding and accelerating the country’s commitments to limit deforestation and restore forested lands, could create effective national carbon sinks to balance remaining emissions in the long term.
Sectors
Power
- While Mozambique already benefits from a high share of renewables (79% in 2019), consisting almost exclusively of hydropower, the country intends to extend its fossil gas power generation – already on an increasing trend – in the current decade.
- Mozambique’s intentions to considerably increase its natural gas production capacities risks locking in a carbon intensive pathway and creating stranded assets, considering that 1.5°C compatible pathways would require the country to phase out gas from the power mix no later than 2033. Renewable energy could contribute between 98-100% of the power mix by 2030, driving a reduction in carbon intensity from 80 gCO₂/kWh in 2019 to 0-10 gCO₂/kWh by 2030.
Transport
- With the number of vehicles in Mozambique’s growing rapidly (average annual rate of 51% between 2012-2017),3 it is projected that the energy demand – and subsequent emissions – from this sector will continue to rise.18
- To align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Mozambique would fully decarbonise the sector between 2047-2050. This can be achieved through the rapid uptake of electricity, among other policies.18