Road transport generates the bulk of transport sector emissions in Mexico.22 These emissions are expected to continue to grow due to increasing ownership of cars that are primarily powered by fossil fuels.28
To align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Mexico would need to reduce transport sector CO₂ emissions by at least 44% below 2019 levels in 2030. Under these pathways, the decreasing emissions are due mainly to an increase in electrification, biofuel consumption, and the incorporation of hydrogen into the energy mix. Electricity share of the sector would need to increase by 3-11% by 2030 and by 18-33% by 2040.
Mexico’s NDC includes some mitigation measures for the transport sector, focusing on fuel efficiency, improvements in public transport, and developing a national electric mobility strategy. However, these measures are not sufficient to significantly reduce emissions. The government also continues to subsidise petrol and diesel.
Despite an increasing trend, electric and hybrid cars sold in Mexico still represent a small percentage of total sales, with less than a 1% share in 2020.29,30 To expedite the market penetration of electric vehicles in Mexico, the government will need to invest heavily in charging infrastructure, a key factor affecting EV uptake.31 1.5°C scenarios assessed here suggest that with the right measures, the sector could be fully decarbonised around 2050.
Mexicoʼs energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
- Natural gas
- Coal
- Oil and e-fuels
- Biofuel
- Biogas
- Biomass
- Hydrogen
- Electricity
- Heat
Mexicoʼs transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
- Historical emissions
- SSP1 High CDR reliance
- SSP1 Low CDR reliance
- Low energy demand
1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Mexico
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Decarbonised transport sector by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Direct CO₂ emissions MtCO₂/yr | 147 | 49 to 82 | 22 to 50 | 6 to 12 | 2052 |
Relative to reference year in % | −67 to −44% | −85 to −66% | −96 to −92% |
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Share of electricity Percent | 0 | 3 to 11 | 18 to 33 | 30 to 65 |
Share of biofuels Percent | 0 | 0 to 16 | 15 to 39 | 7 to 45 |
Share of hydrogen Percent | 0 | 1 to 11 | 7 to 48 | 21 to 48 |