Economy wide
Our analysis shows that to align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Mexico would need to reduce its domestic emissions by 46% below 2015 levels excluding LULUCF, equivalent to 399 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030.
Mexicoʼs total GHG emissions
excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
- 1.5°C compatible pathways
- Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
- Current policy projections
- 1.5°C emissions range
- Historical emissions
2030 NDC
Mexico submitted a new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) during COP27. The NDC includes both unconditional and conditional targets relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. Mexico unconditionally commits to reducing emissions by up to 35% by 2030 and to reducing emissions by 40% below BAU by 2030 on the condition that it receives adequate international support. The conditional target is estimated to result in emissions 5% above, to 6% below 2015 levels by 2030, excluding LULUCF.1,2
1 Gobierno de México. Contribución Determinada a nivel Nacional. Actualización 2022. 1–45 Preprint at https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-11/Mexico_NDC_UNFCCC_update2022_FINAL.pdf (2022).
2 Climate Action Tracker. Mexico. CAT September 2020 Update (2020).
3 SENER. Prospectiva del Sector Eléctrico 2017-2031. (2017).
4 Secretaria de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (SEMARNAT) & Gobierno de México. Estrategia Nacional de Cambio Climático. Informe CICC (2013).
5 Government of Mexico. Mexico’s Climate Change Mid-Century Strategy. (2016).
6 Gütschow, J., Günther, A. & Pflüger, M. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series v2.3 (1750-2019). Preprint at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5175154 (2021).
7 Climate Transparency. Mexico Country Profile. (2020).
8 Climate Action Tracker. Mexico: Climate Action Tracker (Sep 2020 Update). (2020).
10 Congreso General de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos. Diario Oficial de la Federación. Ley de la industria eléctrica. (2014).
11 Cámara de Diputados del H. Congreso de la Unión. Diario Oficial de la Federación. Ley de Transición Energética. Diario Oficial de la Federacion 1–31 (2015).
12 Ember. Yearly electricity data. (2022).
13 Climate Analytics & New Climate Institute. Mexico Climate Action Tracker 2022 update. (2022).
14 Congreso General de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos. Ley General de Cambio Climatico. Diario Oficial de la Federacion Mexicana (2012). doi:10.1007/978-3-319-67666-1_8.
15 Government of Mexico. Compromisos de Mitigación y Adaptación Ante el Cambio Climático para el Periodo 2020-2030. (2015).
16 Gobierno de Mexico. Contribución Determinada a Nivel Nacional de México: Actualización 2020. (2020).
17 CONAFOR. Estrategia Nacional para REDD+ 2017-2030 (ENAREDD+). 6 (2017).
18 Greenpeace Mexico. NDC DE MÉXICO DEBEN SER MÁS AMBICIOSOS Y PROGRESIVOS. Greenpeace Mexico. (2021).
19 Climate Analytics & New Climate Institute. Mexico Climate Action Tracker 2022 update. (2022).
20 Tornel, C. Petro-populism and infrastructural energy landscapes: The case of Mexico’s Dos Bocas Refinery. Nordia Geographical Publications 49, 6–31 (2021).
21 World Resource Institute. Mexico: Policymaking to Ensure Energy Justice in Renewables Development. (2021).
22 IEA. Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Energy 2021 Edition. (2021).
23 Mexico Government & Secretaria de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales. Mexico: Third Biennial Update Report (BUR) to the UNFCCC. (2022).
24 Mackres, E. & Loutfi, F. El potencial de Mexico para liderar en edificaciones cero carbono. WRI Mexico. (2020).
25 Chavez, I. Edificios con eficiencia energética, diminuyen hasta 25% de consumo energético. Factor Energetico. (2022).
26 Mexico Government, Secretaria de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales & Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático. Mexico. National Inventory Report (NIR) 1990-2019. (2022).
27 Guerra, E. & Guillén, J. Leyes de Eficiencia Energética en Latinoamérica y el Caribe. (2021).
28 Climate Analytics & NewClimate Institute. Mexico Climate Action Tracker. (2022).
29 Statista. Electric Vehicles- Mexico. Statista. (2022).
30 Climate Transparency. Mexico Country Profile. (2020).
31 Reporte Indigo. (2022, September 15). Infraestructura en electromovilidad en México, escasa y lenta – Reporte Indigo.
32 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.
2050 Ambition
To align with a 1.5˚C compatible pathway, Mexico’s mid-century GHG emissions should be around 64-133 MtCO₂e/yr, excluding LULUCF, equivalent to reductions of around 80–91% below 2015 emissions levels.2
Net zero
Across all Paris Agreement compatible pathways, the net zero year is achieved through significant reductions in the energy, industry, and waste sectors.
Sectors
Power
- The carbon intensity of Mexico’s power sector would need to reduce from 410 gCO₂/kWh in 2019 to 30–110 gCO₂/kWh by 2030 and to zero by 2040. Mexico’s target for the power sector is to have 40% of the electricity generated by “clean” energy sources by 2034.4 However, the target is not in line with the 1.5°C compatible pathways which would require a 76–92% renewable energy share by 2030.
- Mexico could decarbonise its power sector by phasing out unabated coal and gas by 2029 and 2038–2040, respectively. However, citing the impacts of the pandemic, the current administration has cancelled upcoming renewable energy auctions and passed regulations that favour fossil fuel generation.2
Buildings
- Our analysis of the 1.5°C compatible pathways suggests that the building sector would need to achieve decarbonisation by latest 2045.
- Mexico has energy efficiency policies in place for commercial, public, and private buildings.
- Under 1.5°C scenarios, the share of electrification in the building sector’s final energy demand nearly doubles from 2019 levels to around 70% by 2030.
Industry
- Industry emissions in Mexico accounted for around 24% of the country total carbon footprint in 2017, 14% from the energy demand and 8% from industry processes. Mexico’s main industries are cement, lime production, glass and iron and steel.
- 1.5°C compatible pathways would require an increase in electrification up to 49% by 2030 and to 74-81% by 2050.
- The industrial sector is expected to continue to grow along with its emissions which means that strong mitigation measures will be needed to get on a Paris Agreement compatible pathway.
Transport
- Mexico’s NDC includes some mitigation measures for the transport sector, such as increasing fuel efficiency, improving public transport systems, and developing a national electric mobility strategy.
- However, strong measures will be required by the country to align with 1.5°C compatible pathways. Mexico would need to reduce transport sector CO₂ emissions by at least 44% below 2019 levels by 2030.