The transport sector was responsible for 6% of Kenya’s total GHG emissions in 2017.30,31 The sector consumes 72% of all petroleum products imported into Kenya.21
In its updated NDC, Kenya envisages reductions of 3.46 MtCO₂e for this sector by 203012 through bus rapid transit (BRT) and Non-Motorised Transport (NMT) infrastructure, electric vehicles, rail transport and the uptake and promotion of low-carbon technologies in the aviation sector.9 While this will contribute to its emission reduction target as stated in the NDC, the country would need to implement stronger measures to decarbonise its transport sector in line with the Paris Agreement.
To embark on a 1.5°C compatible pathway, an increase in the share of electricity in the energy mix will be necessary, reaching around 11-21% by 2030 and 44% by 2050, from almost 0% in 2019. Our analysis also shows a significant ramp-up of biofuels in the sector, accounting for up to 61% by 2050.
Kenya has developed e-mobility standards and has recently embarked on establishing electric charging hubs in Nairobi and Nakuru.32,27 Rolling out infrastructure is critical to ensuring uptake of electric vehicles, which will be necessary if the 1.5°C compatible electricity share of 11-21% is to be met. The Kenyan grid is already able to support such a target without any additional capacity,32 meaning that an accelerated infrastructure rollout could help Kenya achieve a Paris compatible transport sector.
1 Climate Action Tracker. Kenya | Climate Action Tracker. (2020).”:https://climateactiontracker.org/climate-target-update-tracker/kenya/
2 Ministry of Environment and Forestry. Kenya’s Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). (2020).
3 Ministry of Energy & Clean Cooking Association of Kenya. Household Cooking Sector Study: Assessment of the Supply and Demand of Cooking Solutions at the Household Level. (2019).
4 “Ministry of Energy. Energy Matrix – Ministry of Energy. Ministry of Energy. (2020).”: https://energy.go.ke/?p=505
5 Geothermal Development Company. Our Story. GDC Geothermal Development Company. (2021).
6 Government of Kenya. Third Medium Term Plan: 2018-2022. (2018).
7 National Environmental Tribunal. Save Lamu & others v NEMA in the National Environmental Tribunal. National Environmental Tribunal (2019).
8 Ministry of Energy. National Energy Policy. (2018).
9 “Government of Kenya. National Climate Change Action Plan (Kenya) 2018-2022. (2018).”: www.environment.go.ke
10 World Bank & CIAT. Climate-Smart Agriculture in Kenya. CSA Country Profiles for Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean Series. (2015).
11 FAO & New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre. Options for Low-Emission Development in the Kenya Dairy Sector – Reducing enteric methane for food security and livelihoods. (2017).
12 “Government of Kenya. National Climate Change Action Plan (Kenya) 2018-2022 Volume 3 : Mitigation Technical Analysis Report. (2018).”: www.environment.go.ke
13 IEA. World Energy Balances 2020 Edition. (2020).
14 Ministry of Energy and Clean Cooking Association of Kenya. Kenya Cooking Sector Study: Assessment of the Supply and Demand of Cooking Solutions at the Household level. (2019).
15 Ngeno, G., Otieno, N., Troncoso, K. & Edwards, R. Opportunities for Transition to Clean Household Energy – Application of the Household Energy Assessment Rapid Tool: Kenya. (2018).
16 Government of Kenya. Green Economy Strategy and Implementation Plan-Kenya 2016-2030. (2016).
17 Salazar, M. E. S. Understanding Access to Clean Cooking Fuels in Kenya. (2023).
18 Government of Kenya. The Energy Act, 2019. (Government Printer, 2019).
19 Yatani, U. Emissions trading system central to environment goals. Business Daily (2021).
20 Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources. Kenya’s Nationally Determined Contribution. (2015).
21 Government of Kenya. National Sustainable Waste Management Policy. (2021).
22 Government of Kenya. Kenya Climate Smart Agriculture Strategy – 2017-2026. (2017).
23 Government of Kenya. National Strategy for Achieving and Maintaining Over 10% Tree Cover by 2022. (2019).
24 International Energy Agency. Access to electricity – SDG7: Data and Projections. IEA. (2021).
25 UNFCCC. Long-term strategies portal | UNFCCC. (2023).
26 IEA World Energy Balances. Kenya – Countries & Regions. IEA. (2022).”:https://www.iea.org/countries/kenya
27 Ministry of Energy. Kenya National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategy. (Ministry of Energy, 2020).
28 Ministry of Energy. Energy (Water Heating) Regulations 2012. (Ministry of Energy, 2012).
29 Ministry of Energy. Energy (Energy Management) Regulations, 2012. (Ministry of Energy, 2012).
30 IEA. Energy Statistics Data Browser. IEA. (2022).
31 “IEA. Energy Statistics Data Browser – Kenya. (2022).”: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/energy-statistics-data-browser?country=KENYA&fuel=CO2%20emissions&indicator=CO2BySector
32 Ambani, B. Kenya Power to pilot electric car charging stations in Nairobi, Nakuru | Nation. Nation Media Group (2022).
Kenyaʼs energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
- Natural gas
- Coal
- Oil and e-fuels
- Biofuel
- Biogas
- Biomass
- Hydrogen
- Electricity
- Heat
Kenyaʼs transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
- Historical emissions
- SSP1 High CDR reliance
- SSP1 Low CDR reliance
- Low energy demand
1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Kenya
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Decarbonised transport sector by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Direct CO₂ emissions MtCO₂/yr | 10 | 5 | 3 | 0 to 1 | 2047 to 2050 |
Relative to reference year in % | −50 to −48% | −70% | −100 to −86% |
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Share of electricity Percent | 0 | 11 to 21 | 27 to 36 | 44 |
Share of biofuels Percent | 0 | 6 to 11 | 5 to 58 | 10 to 61 |
Share of hydrogen Percent | 0 | 1 to 9 | 26 to 34 | 32 to 55 |