Kenya’s updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) targets a 32% emissions reduction below BAU by 2030 with 79% of mitigation costs conditional on international support. This translates to a conditional target of 102% above 2010 emission levels or 108 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030, excluding LULUCF.
With international support, Kenya will be able to implement its domestic emissions pathway and close the gap between its fair share level and domestic emissions level. Paris compatible pathways show emissions levels of 40-53 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 or a reduction of 1-26% below 2010 levels by 2030, excluding LULUCF emissions.
Current policies indicate that Kenya is on track to meeting its conditional NDC commitment. The level of uncertainties on LULUCF emissions might strongly influence the target compatibility with Paris compatible pathways.
Kenya’s NDC only alludes to a net-zero target by 2050 stating that the NDC implementation ‘is part of a transformation to a low-emission society by 2050’. It is hoped that its next climate change action plan will provide further details on this.
On a net zero trajectory, 1.5°C compatible pathway would require for Kenya´s remaining GHG emissions level to be below 37 (31-43) MtCO₂e/yr by 2050 or 332(20-42%) below 2010 levels excluding LULUCF. Reducing LULUCF emissions to become a sink will be key for the country to reach net zero GHG and in the long term to balance its remaining emissions. Measures in the agriculture and energy sectors are key in achieving decarbonisation. The use of biomass in cooking is especially a key area of focus that will enable transition to a clean and sustainable energy for cooking and steer emissions reductions from the forestry sector.
Abandonment of plans on coal and other fossil fuel development whilst increasing the development of renewable energy sources will aid the country’s alignment to a Paris Agreement compatible pathway.