Emissions profile
Türkiye’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (excl. LULUCF) have been steadily rising for the past three decades, increasing to 138% above 1990 levels in 2018.2 While all sectors of the economy have registered significant emissions growth, the majority of this increase has come from the energy sector (81%). The power sector registered the largest single increase, more than tripling over this period, accounting for 30% of the country’s national carbon footprint in 2018. Emissions from the agriculture sector, which were stable between 1990–2010, have since increased by 44% (2010–2019).
The forestry and land use sector, on the other hand, has become a considerably larger sink over time, removing almost 95 MtCO₂e in 2018, compared to 56 MtC₂e in 1990. Türkiye’s National Inventory Report 2020 explains this increase driven by an “increased productivity of the forests”.
1 Government of Turkey. On bi̇ri̇nci̇ kalkinma plani (2019-2023) (11th Development Plan (2019-2023)). 2019.
2 Turkish Statistical Institute. Turkish Greenhouse gas inventory report 1990–2018. 2020.
3 Republic of Turkey Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. Turkey Energy Strategy 2019-2023. 2019.
4 Global Energy Monitor. Global Coal Plant Tracker Database (July). Global Energy Monitor. 2020.
5 Climate Transparency. Turkey – Climate Transparency Report 2020. Climate Transparency Report. 2020.
6 Turkish Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. Türkiye Ulusal Enerji Planı [Türkiye National Energy Plan]. 2022. Preprint at enerji.gov.tr//Media/Dizin/EIGM/tr/Raporlar/TUEP/T%C3%BCrkiye_Ulusal_Enerji_Plan%C4%B1.pdf
7 Republic of Turkey Ministry of Environment and Urbanization. Turkey’s Fourth Biennial Report. 2019.
8 Kurum, M. Türkiye – High-level Segment Statement COP 27. UNFCCC. 2022. Preprint at unfccc-events.azureedge.net/COP27_90500/agenda
9 Government of Turkey. National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (NEEAP) 2017-2023. 2017.
10 Government of Turkey. Turkey. 2022 Common Reporting Format (CRF) Table. 2022.
11 Government of Turkey. Transport and Logistic Master Plan 2053. 2020.
12 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.
13 LULUCF projections by 2030 are based on a ten-year average of the latest available historical LULUCF emissions from Türkiye assessed by the Climate Action Tracker.
Türkiyeʼs current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
By sector
- Power
- Transport
- Buildings
- Industry (energy use)
- Fugitive emissions
- Other
- Industry (processes)
- Agriculture
- Waste
- LULUCF
By gas
- CO₂
- CH₄
- N₂O
- Other
Sectors by gas
Energy
Agriculture
Industry (processes)
Energy system
Türkiye’s rising energy sector emissions are primarily due to newly constructed coal-fired power stations. While the government has planned to further increase coal capacity by 44% between 2019 and 2023 in its energy strategy, it has a current coal pipeline of 10 GW.3 However, financing for such projects is becoming increasingly difficult, meaning some of this capacity may not eventuate.4
The share of renewable energy generation has increased rapidly in recent years, hitting 44% in 2019, thereby exceeding the government’s 2023 target of 38.8%.5 This growth reflects the significant potential in Türkiye especially for wind and solar energy and decreasing costs of these technologies. Renewable energy sources have replaced fossil gas in power generation and therefore also contributed to achieving the government’s goal to secure greater energy independence. However, sustaining the promising growth in renewables deployment will require strong policy support.
Targets and commitments
Economy-wide targets
Target type
NDC target
- 21% below BAU by 2030 incl. LULUCF.
- 111% above 2015 levels excluding LULUCF.
- 96% above 2015 levels including LULUCF.
Market mechanism
- “Türkiye aims to use carbon credits from international market mechanisms to achieve its 2030 mitigation target in accordance with relevant rules and standards.”
Long-term target
- Net zero GHG emissions by 2053.
Sector coverage
EnergyTransportIndustryWasteAgricultureLULUCFGreenhouse gas coverage
CO₂CH₄NF₃HFCsN₂OSF₆Sectoral targets
Buildings
- Reducing energy consumption of public buildings by 15% by 2023.
Industry
- Reducing energy intensity by 10% by 2023.
Transport
- Increasing the share of rail in passenger transport to 6% by 2053.
- Increasing the share of rail in freight transport to 22% by 2053.