Power sector in 2030
Under 1.5°C aligned pathways, renewable energy’s share of total power generation in Türkiye would need to reach up to 86% by 2030. Renewable energy already made up 44% of the country’s total power generation in 2019, up from 29% just two years earlier, demonstrating that a rapid transition to renewables is possible.
While gas-fired power generation was cut in half between 2019 and 2014, it has been rising again in the past two years. Under a 1.5°C compatible pathway, fossil gas-fired power generation needs to decline to 8–13% by 2030 and phase out late 2030’s.
However, the government plans to partly replace the electricity from fossil gas-fired power generation with new coal capacity. This is incompatible with the 1.5°C limit which requires a coal phase-out by 2035.
Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
The emissions intensity of the power sector would need to be cut by at least 80% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels. The emissions intensity should be no more than 80 gCO₂/kWh in 2030 and near zero around 2040.
With an enormous potential for wind and solar development, Türkiye is well positioned to reach 100% renewables-based power generation by 2040 in line with its 1.5°C compatible pathways. A high renewable energy share could limit or completely eliminate the need for carbon removal technologies. This is demonstrated by one analysed pathway that shows an 86% share of renewable energy in the power mix in 2030, reaching 100% in 2050, with no need for carbon removals in subsequent decades.