The transport sector has the third highest share of total final consumption of energy in Mozambique (around 14.6% in 2019).² The sector is powered almost exclusively by oil. With the vehicle population growing rapidly (average annual rate of 51% between 2012-2017),³ it is projected that the energy demand – and subsequently emissions – from this sector will continue to rise.³

To align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Mozambique needs to fully decarbonise the sector between 2047-2050. This can be achieved through the rapid uptake of electricity, among other policies. The share of electricity in the transport sector would need to increase from 0% in 2019 to 6-21% by 2030 and 25-44% by 2050.

The Government of Mozambique has expressed its support for a shift towards electric mobility in the country, and discussed a draft electric mobility strategy with various stakeholders in 2019.³ However, the transport sector interventions expressed in Mozambique’s NDC primarily pertain to the introduction and promotion of fossil gas-powered vehicles and buses.¹ Given the carbon emissions associated with fossil gas, such policies are unlikely to bring Mozambique’s transport sector in line with 1.5°C.

¹ Government of Mozambique. Updated First National Determined Contribution of Mozambique. (2021).

² IEA. Mozambique Key Energy Statistics, 2019. International Energy Agency. (2022).

³ United Nations Environment Programme. Mozambique Agrees to a National Electric Mobility Strategy: 7 November 2019. United Nations Environment Programme. (2019).

⁴ USAID. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Mozambique. (2017).

⁵ Republic of Mozambique. Agenda Estratégica 2019-2-35 e Programa Nacional de Florestas Moçambique. (2019).

⁶ Mozambique LNG. About the Mozambique Liquefied Natural Gas Project. Total Energies. (2020).

⁷ Mokveld, K. & von Eije, S. Final Energy Report Mozambique. (2018).

⁸ IEA. Energy Statistics Data Browser. IEA. (2022).

⁹ van der Plas, R. J. et al. Mozambique Biomass Energy Strategy. (2012).

¹⁰ Nhede, N. Mozambique President Officially Launches Coral Sul FLNG Project. Energy Capital & Power. (2022).

¹¹ Global Energy Monitor. Mozambique LNG Terminal. Global Fossil Infrastructure Tracker. (2023).

¹² Global Energy Monitor. Rovuma LNG Terminal. Global Fossil Infrastructure Tracker. (2023).

¹³ UN Environment Programme. Protecting the environment in Mozambique’s emerging oil and gas sector. UN Environment Programme UN Environment Programme (2019).

¹⁴ Government of Mozambique. Plano de Acção Tecnológica e Ideias de Projecto: Tecnologias de Geração de Electricidade e de Gestão e Tratamento de Resíduos Sólidos Urbanos. (2018).

¹⁵ Inter Institutional Group on Climate Change. National Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Strategy. (2021).

¹⁶ World Bank, IRENA, UNSD & WHO. Access to electricity (% of population) – Mozambique. (2023).

¹⁷ World Bank, IEA, UNSD & WHO. Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (% of population) – Mozambique. (2023).

¹⁸ See assumptions

¹⁹ Global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C tend to include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches, and often rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. The scenarios available at the time of this analysis focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology, and our downscaling methods do not yet take national BECCS potentials into account.

²⁰ It should be noted that as of March 2022, Total Energies has declared force majeure on the Mozambique LNG Project due to the prevailing security situation in Cabo Delgado province, where the Project is situated. The future of the Project is therefore uncertain.