The transport sector in Ethiopia contributes 3% of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

1.5°C compatible pathways show an increase in electrification to 11-21% by 2030 and 44% by 2050 from 0% in 2019. The sector would need to decarbonise between 2045 and 2047 to align with 1.5°C. Aside from electrification, full decarbonisation will rely on the rollout of either hydrogen (33-54% by 2050) or biomass (15-64% by 2050), depending on which pathways the government follows.

Ethiopia’s National Transport Policy aims at reducing emissions through the electrification of the sector and the expansion of the country’s light rail network. Other measures in the policy include the Addis Ababa-Djibouti railway project, which is now operational, and measures in support of Ethiopia’s mass transit plans. Similarly, its updated NDC envisages reductions in transport emissions through fuel efficiency, bus rapid transit (BRT) and Non-Motorised Transport (NMT) infrastructure, electric vehicles, rail transport, including the expansion of the Addis light rail, and the uptake and promotion of low-carbon technologies.^3-5

¹ Climate Action Tracker. Ethiopia | Climate Action Target Update Tracker. (2020).

² GERD Coordination Office. Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). (2020).

³ Government of Ethiopia. Climate-Resilient Green Economy Strategy. (2011).

⁴ Government of Ethiopia. Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy National Adaptation Plan. (2019).

⁵ IEA. Ethiopia: Key Energy Statistics. (2018).

⁶ Climate Action Tracker. Ethiopia | Climate Action Target Update Tracker. (2020).

⁷ Government of Ethiopia. Summary of Ethiopia’s Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). (2020).

⁸ Government of Ethiopia. The Second Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP II) Midterm Review Report. (2018).

⁹ Government of Ethiopia. Draft National Energy Policy (March 2021). (Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy, 2021).

¹⁰ World Nuclear News. Ethiopia, Russia extend cooperation in nuclear energy. Nuclear Policies. (2019).

¹¹ Government of Ethiopia. Ethiopia 2030: The Pathway to Prosperity Ten Years Perspective Development Plan (2021-2030). (2020).

¹² Government of Ethiopia. Growth and Transformation Plan II (GTP II). (2016).

¹³ National Green Development. Stats – National Green Development. (2021).

¹⁴ Beyene, G. E., Kumie, A., Edwards, R. & Troncoso, K. Opportunities for transition to clean household energy in Ethiopia Application of the WHO Household Energy Assessment Rapid Tool (HEART). (2018).

¹⁵ N Scott, T Jones & S Batchelor. Ethiopia; Cooking transitions: An analysis of Multi-Tier Framework Data for insights into transitions to modern energy cooking. (2020).

¹⁶ Ethiopian Electric Power. Power Generation. (2020).

¹⁷ Government of Ethiopia. Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy National Adaptation Plan. (2019).

¹⁸ IEA. Ethiopia coal demand and production by scenario, 2010-2040. (2020).

¹⁹ IPCC. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2007).

²⁰ Global Energy Monitor. Global Coal Plant Tracker Database (July). Global Energy Monitor. (2020).

²¹ While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.

²² NDC indicates that forestry covers land and managed soils.

²³ For example, it is difficult to prepare Injera, Ethiopia’s staple on a gas or electric cooker.

²⁴ A review of GTPII is still underway. This will shed light on the current situation after the end of the GTP II in 2020 and provide a basis for GTPIII or a successor framework.