Ethiopia’s NDC was updated in 2020, and is conditional on international support. Under this new target its emissions would increase to 75% above 2015 levels or to 213 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030, excluding LULUCF.
Current policies projections indicate that Ethiopia is on track to meeting its NDC.
With international support, Ethiopia will be able to implement its domestic emissions pathway and close the gap between its fair share level and domestic emissions level. Paris Agreement compatible pathways show emissions reductions of 10-37% below 2015 levels or 76-110 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 excluding LULUCF.
Even though the country aims to become ‘carbon neutral’, it has not yet announced a net zero CO₂ target year. Its Low Emission Development Strategy is under development.
1.5°C compatible pathways show GHG emissions reductions, excluding LULUCF, by 22% (10-37%) below 2015 levels by 2050.
Emissions reductions measures will need to focus on high emitting sectors such as energy, agriculture, particularly livestock, and biomass for cooking. Intensifying its electrification programme for end-use sectors will be one of the key policy areas to steer emissions reductions both in the energy sector and the LULUCF sector.