In 2019, the transport sector was responsible for a quarter of Canada’s total emissions (excl. LULUCF). While the sector’s emissions intensity improved marginally (dropping 3% between 1990 and 2019), absolute transport emissions have increased by 42% over the same period.

Across all pathways, electrification plays an important role in decarbonising the transport sector. To be 1.5°C compatible, electricity increases from 1% of the transport energy mix in 2019 to 16-24% by 2030 and 43-88% by 2050. Scenarios with lower electrification rates rely more heavily on hydrogen and biofuels to reduce emissions. Hydrogen and electricity will help decarbonise the transport sector only if they are themselves produced from renewable energy sources.

Canada has plans to decarbonise transport, however, more will be needed to align with 1.5°C. In June 2021, the federal government brought forward its goal of zero emissions vehicles (ZEVs) reaching 100% of new passenger vehicle sales to 2035, rather than 2040. Adopting a ZEV mandate or other policy tool to meet this goal would be an important next step. Draft regulations for an electric vehicle (EV) sales mandate were published in December 2022.¹⁰ Canada plans to reduce transport emissions by incentivising retrofits and encouraging the use of lower emissions fuels in freight,²⁹ supporting EV uptake through tax incentives,³⁰ and investing in zero-emissions public transport infrastructure.^13,31

¹ Office of the Prime Minister of Canada. Prime Minister Trudeau announces increased climate ambition.(2021).

² Climate Action Tracker. CAT Climate Target Update Tracker: Canada | July 2021 Update. (2021).

³ Climate Action Tracker. Canada. CAT September 2020 Update. (2020).

⁴ Government of Canada. Regulations Amending the Reduction of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal-fired Generation of Electricity Regulations. in Canada Gazette Part II, Vol. 152, No. 25, Regulation SOR/2018-263 (2018).

⁵ Government of Canada. Net-Zero Emissions by 2050.

⁶ Canada Ministry of the Environment. Bill C-12: An Act respecting transparency and accountability in Canada’s efforts to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by the year 2050. (House of Commons of Canada, 2020).

⁷ Government of Canada. Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act. in Bill C-12 (2021).

⁸ Environment and Climate Change Canada. National Inventory Report 1990-2019: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada. (2021).

⁹ Government of Canada. Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change. 1–86. (2016).

¹⁰ Environment and Climate Change Canada. A healthy environment and a healthy economy: Canada’s strengthened climate plan to create jobs and support people, communities and the planet.(2020).

¹¹ Government of Canada. Clean Fuel Standard. (2020).

¹² Natural Resources Canada. Canadian LNG Projects. (2020).

¹³ Canada Energy Regulator. Canada’s Energy Future 2020. (2020).

¹⁴ IRENA. Renewable Energy Statistics 2020. (2020).

¹⁵ Government of Canada. Canada’s coal power phase-out reaches another milestone. (2018).

¹⁶ The Government of Canada. Government of Canada working with provinces to reduce methane emissions from oil and gas operations. (2020).

¹⁷ Government of Canada. Clean Fuel Standard. (2020).

¹⁸ Transport Canada. Building a green economy: Government of Canada to require 100% of car and passenger truck sales be zero-emission by 2035 in Canada. (2021).

¹⁹ While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.