Peru’s conditional NDC target, updated in 2020, aims for absolute emissions of 108 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 (15% above 2015 levels), excluding LULUCF. Post-COVID policy projections for the country estimate that 2030 emissions will be around 116 MtCO₂e/yr (23% above 2015 levels).
1.5°C compatible pathways show that Peru’s 2030 emissions would need to be 26–41% below 2015 levels by 2030, reaching between 60–75 MtCO₂e/yr, excluding LULUCF emissions. Peru would therefore need to mitigate at least an additional 33 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 on top of its conditional NDC target to fall within the upper range of 1.5°C compatible emission reduction targets.
It is feasible for Peru to reduce emissions in line with 1.5°C compatible pathways goal if it receives adequate international support. This support can help it close the gap between its fair share level and the 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway.
Long term pathway
Peru has announced its intent to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions including LULUCF by 2050, according to preliminary findings from a technical study carried out by Peru’s Ministry of the Environment. The government has not yet released a clear strategy for reaching this goal.
When excluding LULUCF emissions, Peru‘s remaining GHG emissions by 2050 should not exceed around 16 MtCO₂e/yr. This level equals to emissions reductions of at least 83% below 2015 levels. Achieving this pace of decarbonisation will require international support.
The key drivers of emissions reductions will be the decarbonisation of the power and transport sectors, where emissions will need to be drastically reduced by switching to renewable sources of power production and zero-emission vehicles. On the road to net zero, the country will need to balance its remaining emissions through the use of carbon sinks, likely from the land sector. Given the high share of LULUCF emissions (more than half of total GHG emissions in Peru’s latest national inventory report), the country will need to implement stringent policies to stop deforestation. LULUCF emissions will need to reduce and the sector to become a larger sink. Historically, the Peruvian Amazon rainforest has seen its area shrinking due to activities such as mining, logging, and the expansion of agro-industry.