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Peru Ambition gap

What is Peruʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

Peru’s conditional NDC target, updated in 2020, aims for absolute emissions of 108 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 (15% above 2015 levels), excluding LULUCF.29 Post-COVID policy projections for the country estimate that 2030 emissions will be around 116 MtCO₂e/yr (23% above 2015 levels).2

1.5°C compatible pathways show that Peru’s 2030 emissions would need to be 26–41% below 2015 levels by 2030, reaching between 60–75 MtCO₂e/yr, excluding LULUCF emissions. Peru would therefore need to mitigate at least an additional 33 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 on top of its conditional NDC target to fall within the upper range of 1.5°C compatible emission reduction targets.

It is feasible for Peru to reduce emissions in line with 1.5°C compatible pathways goal if it receives adequate international support. This support can help it close the gap between its fair share level and the 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway.

Long term pathway

Peru has announced its intent to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions including LULUCF by 2050, according to preliminary findings from a technical study carried out by Peru’s Ministry of the Environment.3 The government has not yet released a clear strategy for reaching this goal.4

When excluding LULUCF emissions, Peru‘s remaining GHG emissions by 2050 should not exceed around 16 MtCO₂e/yr. This level equals to emissions reductions of at least 83% below 2015 levels.30 Achieving this pace of decarbonisation will require international support.

The key drivers of emissions reductions will be the decarbonisation of the power and transport sectors, where emissions will need to be drastically reduced by switching to renewable sources of power production and zero-emission vehicles. On the road to net zero, the country will need to balance its remaining emissions through the use of carbon sinks, likely from the land sector. Given the high share of LULUCF emissions (more than half of total GHG emissions in Peru’s latest national inventory report), the country will need to implement stringent policies to stop deforestation. LULUCF emissions will need to reduce and the sector to become a larger sink. Historically, the Peruvian Amazon rainforest has seen its area shrinking due to activities such as mining, logging, and the expansion of agro-industry.22

1 Climate Action Tracker. Climate Target Update Tracker: Peru. (2020).

2 Climate Action Tracker. Peru: Country Summary. (2020).

3 Ministerio de Ambiente de Peru. Estiman que reducir emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero beneficiará al país en 98 mil millones de dólares al 2050. Press Release, Ministerio de Ambiente (2020).

4 Gobierno del Peru. Contribuciones Determinadas a Nivel Nacional del Perú. Reporte de actualización periodo 2021-2030. 29 (2020).

5 Ministerio de Energía y Minas Peru. Minem: al cierre del último año se ejecutaron 49 proyectos de energías renovables en el Perú. (2021).

6 COES Perú. Actualización Plan de Transmision 2021 – 2030. (2020).

7 Andina Staff. 15% of Peru’s energy matrix in 2030 to be generated from renewable sources. Andina: Agencia Peruana de Noticias (2018).

8 International Energy Agency. Peru: Electricity generation by source. (2020).

9 BN Americas. What’s next for Peru’s failed 7-region gas concession call? BN Americas (2021).

10 Ministry of the Environment. Peru. Inventario Nacional de Gases de Efecto Invernadero del Año 2016 y Actualización de las Estimaciones de los Años 2000, 2005, 2010, 2012 y 2014. (2021).

11 Guglielmetti, F. Por decreto Perú facilita ingreso de vehículos eléctricos, híbridos y de hidrógeno verde. Portal movilidad (2022).

12 Ministerio de Transporte y Comunicaciones (MTC). Decreto Supremo que crea el Programa Nacional de Transporte Urbano Sostenible. Peru government (2019).

13 Reuters Staff. Peru says deforestation on the rise, up 80 percent from 2001. Reuters (2014).

14 International Energy Agency (IEA). Peru: Total energy supply (TES) by source. (2020).

15 Banco del Desarrollo de Perú (COFIDE). Prácticas e instrumentos financieros para promover la descarbonización de la movilidad urbana. (2019).

16 COFIDE. KfW y COFIDE firman acuerdo de préstamo por 250 millones de euros para Programa “Covid 19: Programa de Reactivación Verde”. (2020).

17 Organismo Supervisor de Inversión en Energía y Minería (OSINERGMIN)- Perú. La industria del gas natural en el Perú a diez años del Proyecto Camisea. vol. 51 (2017).

18 El Congreso de la República de Perú. LEY No 29969: Ley que dicta disposiciones a fin de promover la masificación del gas natural. El Peruano vol. 23 32 (El Congreso de la Repúblic de Perú, 2012).

19 Government of Peru. Peruvian submission to the UNFCCC under the Copenhagen accord. (2010).

20 Ministerio del Ambiente- Perú. Segundo Informe Bienal de Actualización ante la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climático. (2019).

21 Ministry of Environment of Peru. Programa Bosques del Minam proyecta conservar 10 millones de hectáreas de bosques comunales hacia el 2030. (2020).

22 Climate Action Tracker. Peru: Country Summary. (2020).”:

23 BN Americas. Increasing natural gas use in 7 Peruvian regions: a mature and profitable project. (2020).

24 Gaillard, C. Sustainable construction in Peru between informality, unskilled labour, self-construction and corruption. Construction 21 (2019).

25 Ministerio de Vivienda, C. y S. Decreto Supremo que Aprueba el Codigo Tecnico de Construccion Sostenible. (2021).

26 Ministry of the Environment. Peru. National Inventory Report 2016 and update 2000, 2005, 2010, 2012 y 2014. (2021).

27 Salas Oblitas, L. Autos híbridos y eléctricos: ¿cómo está el Perú respecto a los países de la región? El Comercio (2020).

28 Government of Peru. Decreto Supremo que crea el Programa Nacional de Transporte Urbano Sostenible. (Ministry of Transport and Communications, 2019).

29 To exclude LULUCF emissions, it was assumed that the percentage of share of mitigation effort in the LULUCF sector is the same as described in the first NDC and this value is subtracted from the absolute value.

30 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.


Peruʼs total GHG emissions

excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values
Reference year
Net zero GHG excl. LULUCF*
Reference year
1.5°C emissions level
NDC (conditional)
NDC (unconditional)
Ambition gap
  • 1.5°C compatible pathways
  • Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
  • Current policy projections
  • 1.5°C emissions range
  • Historical emissions
2030 emissions levels
Current policy projections
NDC (conditional)
1.5°C emissions level
Ref. year 2015

Energy system transformation

The transport and power sectors will be key to decarbonising Peru’s energy system. Peru’s total primary energy supply (TPES) is dominated by oil and natural gas, used to power the country’s vehicles, industry and residential sectors, with only a 25% share of renewable energy in the TPES in 2018.14

Between 30–57% of Peru’s TPES will need to be generated from renewable sources by 2030 and 51–95% by 2050 to be on a 1.5°C pathway. Lower shares of renewable energy in TPES would result in higher reliance on negative emissions technologies to balance remaining emissions. CO₂ emissions for the whole energy sector would need to drop between 28–45 MtCO₂/yr by 2030 and be fully decarbonised by 2050.

Unless renewable energy is quickly ramped up in the energy sector, negative emissions technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) will need to be implemented as soon as possible to compensate for the continued emissions from the energy sector.


Peruʼs primary energy mix

petajoule per year

SSP1 Low CDR reliance
20192030204020502 000
SSP1 High CDR reliance
20192030204020502 000
Low energy demand
20192030204020502 000
High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
20192030204020502 000
  • Renewables incl. biomass
  • Unabated fossil
  • Nuclear and/or fossil with CCS
  • Negative emissions technologies via BECCS

Peruʼs total CO₂ emissions

excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

  • 1.5°C compatible pathways
  • 1.5°C emissions range
  • Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
  • Historical emissions

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Peru. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference year
Reference year
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
61 to 81
31 to 46
−6 to 35
Relative to reference year in %
−35 to −14%
−67 to −51%
−107 to −63%
Total CO₂
28 to 45
−3 to 19
−31 to 1
2039 to 2058
Relative to reference year in %
−46 to −12%
−106 to −62%
−160 to −98%