Energy use in Pakistan’s transport sector has risen slowly and mostly steadily over the past decades but began to significantly increase in 2013. Oil has been the primary energy carrier in transport accounting for 91% of the total consumed in 2019. Oil’s share in transport energy had dropped to a low of 78% in 2011, as natural gas use increased. However, due to lower oil prices and natural gas shortages in the country, the use of natural gas has decreased since then.,
1.5°C compatible pathways for the transport sector show an increase in energy use, so that 2019 levels are reached or surpassed by 2040, and consumption continues to increase out to 2070. The increase after 2030 sees substantial amounts of hydrogen and electricity replacing oil. As direct CO₂ emissions begin to drop immediately under 1.5°C pathways, the implication is that fuel switching will follow efficiency improvements for the overall long-term trajectory. The result is that this sector reaches zero emissions between 2048 and 2066.
The government, through their National Electric Vehicle Policy (NEVP), has set targets for electric vehicles to comprise 30% of all new vehicles sold (various categories) by 2030 and 90% by 2040. In addition, Euro 5 emissions standards have been introduced for petrol and diesel vehicles. Recent analysis has found that under the NVEP, total transport-related CO₂ emissions to 2030 (direct and indirect) would be lower than a no EV adoption scenario, although emissions would still increase., On the other hand, the 1.5°C pathways analysed here show a decrease between 30-58% (2019-30) for transport related CO₂ emissions. This is in large part due to the increased renewable share in power generation outlined above.
Projects under implementation and development in mass transit seek to lower emissions both by providing an alternative to individual passenger vehicles and utilisation of low emission fuels such as bio-methane from cow dung. Thus, the government is taking advantage of sector coupling opportunities between transport and waste.