Pakistan’s building sector has, since 2000, consistently accounted for around 52% of the country’s total final consumption. Building energy consumption grew at around a 2.7% annualised rate between 2010 and 2019. With the steady rise in energy consumption has come corresponding emissions growth from this sector, with emissions growing faster than energy consumption in recent years (34% vs 27% from 2010 to 2019). Direct CO₂ emissions in the sector, around 22 MtCO₂/yr in 2019, have been steadily increasing. The energy structure of the building sector has witnessed a slow shift away from traditional biomass to natural gas and electricity. Still, biomass currently accounts for 68% of the total energy supply.
The 1.5°C compatible pathways for the building sector are characterised by a rapid decrease in the consumption of biomass and a corresponding increase in electricity use. Due to the decrease in biomass use, final energy in 2030 is reduced by 35-51% from 2019 levels. Energy use increases back to 2019 levels by 2050 but with electricity accounting for between 79-87% of the total. The change in energy structure leads to direct emissions from the building sector falling from 2019 levels of 21.6 MtCO₂/yr in 2019 to reach net zero between 2032 and 2042.
The government, in their updated NDC, has included measures for green buildings supported by the goal of “at least 20% RE generation by 2025 and at least 60% by 2030”. The 2030 target falls short of the 1.5°C compatible pathways range for the power sector, 76-81%. The NDC also sets a target for 15% of households to transition from biomass to electricity by 2050.