Energy use by industry accounted for 12% of Italy’s total GHG emissions in 2019, making it the fourth largest emitting sector, or third when process emissions are considered. However, emissions have been decreasing, falling by 35% between 2003 to 2019, though this is largely due to an overall decline in this sector due to economic downturns in 2009 and 2013. The production of iron and steel contributed roughly 20% of total industrial CO₂ emissions in 2019.20 Most 1.5°C compatible scenarios require similar emission reduction rates to be sustained over the coming decades to reduce direct CO₂ emissions from industry by 57-60% by 2030 and reach 80-93% by 2040. One scenario, the high energy demand scenario, would see a full decarbonisation of the sector by 2037.
Process emissions, which accounted for 8% of the total GHG emissions in 2019, have decreased by 44% between 2006-2017.21 The continuation of this declining trend would align Italy’s industry sector with the 1.5°C scenarios, in combination with a rapid phase out of fossil gas. Failing such a rapid gas phase out, equivalent emissions reductions would need to be achieved with costly and unproven carbon dioxide removal technologies.
26 Electric or hybrid vehicles with off-vehicle charging, powered by methane and hydrogen, and electricity and methane in the case of buses.
27 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available, thus we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.
Italyʼs industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Unit
02040608010019902010203020502070
Historical emissions
SSP1 High CDR reliance
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
Low energy demand
Italyʼs GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
0102030405019902010203020502070
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
SSP1 High CDR reliance
Low energy demand
High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
Historical emissions
1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Italy