The majority of Italy’s emissions come from its transport sector, followed by the power sector as the second highest emitting sector. Power sector emissions peaked in 2004 and decreased by around 33% between 1990 and 2019.6
Transport (25% of total GHG emissions), power (22%) and buildings (19%) were the main sources of emissions in Italy’s energy sector in 2019.2
While Italy’s transport emissions peaked in 2007 and have been declining since, they have nevertheless increased 3.2% in 2019 compared to 1990 levels. The EU’s mandatory emissions reduction targets under the EU’s effort sharing regulation (ESR) and tightened emissions standards can be credited for aiding in the prevention of increasing transport sector emissions, though the economic slowdown following 2009 has had a large impact as well.7 The modest increase reflects the rise in usage of personal vehicles and air transport for mobility needs.16 The industry sector’s emissions have also fallen from 1990 levels as a result of the economic slowdown in 2009 following the global financial crisis, that was further exacerbated in 2013 by a recession in the Italian economy.8,9
Under the EU’s ESR, Italy has a binding emissions reduction target of 33% below 2005 levels by 2030 for sectors including transport, buildings and agriculture. Under the EU’s ‘Fit for 55′ package proposal, Italy’s ESR goal is set to be revised to 43.7% below 2005 levels, although the scope of the ESR sector is still being defined under the package.10
26 Electric or hybrid vehicles with off-vehicle charging, powered by methane and hydrogen, and electricity and methane in the case of buses.
27 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available, thus we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.
Italyʼs current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
Displayed values
By sector
Transport
Buildings
Power
Industry (energy use)
Other
Fugitive emissions
Industry (processes)
Agriculture
Waste
LULUCF
By gas
CO₂
CH₄
Other
N₂O
079%0
Sectors by gas
Energy
096%0
Agriculture
064%0
Industry (processes)
00
Energy system
Buildings (residential and commercial) is the largest energy consuming end-use sector in Italy accounting for an approximate 44% share of final energy demand in 2019, followed by transport (32%), industry (22%) and others (2%).11 In 2019, primary energy in Italy was mainly sourced from fossil gas (42%), oil (33%), renewable energy (20%) and coal (4%).12
Fossil gas contributed to around half of electricity generation in Italy in 2021, the share of which has been increasing in the recent years.12 In contrast, the share of coal has been declining, reaching less than 5% in 2021. Italy plans to phase out coal by 2025.12,13
Italy was the third-largest fossil fuel importer in the EU after Germany and the Netherlands in 2019, primarily because of its gas imports. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine – Russia being Italy’s primary supplier of natural gas – the country is now being forced to review its strategy. Italy has significant renewable energy resources which could be exploited to accelerate the transition from fossil fuels, though the initial response to the dependency on Russian gas has been focused on diversifying its gas suppliers.
While Italy has great potential for renewable energy generation. Hydropower and solar are currently its largest source of renewable electricity. Italy aims to install 52 GW of solar power and 19.3 GW of wind power by 2030 respectively, and the renewable share of electricity generation has been rising steadily in the last decade, reaching approximately 17% in 2019.12,13
Italy aims to spur decarbonisation in remaining sectors through an increased uptake of electric vehicles and modal shift in the transport sector, as well as buildings renovation and efficiency improvements.13,14
Targets and commitments
Economy-wide targets
Target type
Other
NDC target
Based on Italy’s NECP:
33% below 2005 levels for non-ETS sectors by 2030.
43% below 2005 levels for ETS sectors by 2030. (EU-wide).13,25
Note that under the ‘Fit for 55′ EU-package proposal, Italy’s target is likely to increase.
Long-term target
As a member state of European Union, Italy should contribute to achieving EU’s climate neutrality goals by 2050.15 As of June 2022, Italy has not yet submitted a long-term strategy to the UNFCCC.
Sector coverage
EnergyTransportIndustryWasteAgricultureLULUCF
Greenhouse gas coverage
CO₂CH₄NF₃HFCsN₂OSF₆
Sectoral targets
Energy
Target of 30% (about 1.4 EJ) share of renewable energy in gross final consumption by 2030.
43% reduction of primary energy consumption and 39.7% of final energy consumption by 2030.16
33% share of renewable energy in heating and cooling by 2030.16
Transport
Increase the share of renewable energy to reach 22% in final energy consumption by 2030.16
Government fleet purchase mandate of alternative fuel vehicles of 50% by 2025 and 85% by 2030.16,26
Government budget of €1 billion allocated each year from 2020 to 2022 for public building renovation (of which €40 million for public schools) to meet the minimum requirement of 3% (of floor area) by Energy Efficiency Directive (EED) standards.16
Industry
All EU ETS revenue exceeding €1,000 million per year, up to €100 million in 2020 and €150 million in 2021, will be allocated for energy efficiency measures in the industrial sector. Energy efficiency in the Industrial sector is projected to achieve savings of 1 Mtoe per year until 2030.17
The White Certificate and National Energy Efficiency Fund for overall energy efficiency can be used for improvements in industrial processes.11,17