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Italy Current situation

What is Italyʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Emissions profile

The majority of Italy’s emissions come from its transport sector, followed by the power sector as the second highest emitting sector. Power sector emissions peaked in 2004 and decreased by around 33% between 1990 and 2019.6

Transport (25% of total GHG emissions), power (22%) and buildings (19%) were the main sources of emissions in Italy’s energy sector in 2019.2

While Italy’s transport emissions peaked in 2007 and have been declining since, they have nevertheless increased 3.2% in 2019 compared to 1990 levels. The EU’s mandatory emissions reduction targets under the EU’s effort sharing regulation (ESR) and tightened emissions standards can be credited for aiding in the prevention of increasing transport sector emissions, though the economic slowdown following 2009 has had a large impact as well.7 The modest increase reflects the rise in usage of personal vehicles and air transport for mobility needs.16 The industry sector’s emissions have also fallen from 1990 levels as a result of the economic slowdown in 2009 following the global financial crisis, that was further exacerbated in 2013 by a recession in the Italian economy.8,9

Under the EU’s ESR, Italy has a binding emissions reduction target of 33% below 2005 levels by 2030 for sectors including transport, buildings and agriculture. Under the EU’s ‘Fit for 55′ package proposal, Italy’s ESR goal is set to be revised to 43.7% below 2005 levels, although the scope of the ESR sector is still being defined under the package.10

1 Government of Italy. Plan for the Ecological Transition. 2021.

2 Ministry of the Economy and Finance of the Republic of Italy. Annex to the Economics and Finance Document 2021. 2021.

3 Group of Seven. Carbis Bay G7 Summit Communiqué. GOV.UK. 2021.


5 ACEA. 2022 Progress Report – Making the transition to zero-emission mobility. 2022.

6 EEA. EEA greenhouse gas data viewer. European Environmental Agency Data Viewer 2021. (Accessed: 25th January 2021)

7 European Commission. Road transport: Reducing CO2 emissions from vehicles. 2020. Available at: (Accessed: 15th January 2020)

8 Government of Italy. Italy. 2020 National Inventory Report (NIR). (2020).

9 Instituto Superior per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale. Indicators of efficiency and the decarbonization of the national energy system and the power sector. 2022.

10 European Commission. Commission Staff Working Document Impact Assessment Report. 2021.

11 Eurostat. Final energy consumption by sector – Italy. 2022.

12 International Energy Agency. Energy data and statistics. 2021. Available at: (Accessed: 2nd February 2020)

13 European Commission. COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Assessment of the final national energy and climate plan of Italy. 2020.

14 Government of Italy. Executive Summary- National long-term strategies: Italy. 2021.

15 European Commission. 2050 long-term strategy. 2021. Available at: (Accessed: 18th May 2021)

16 Government of Italy. Italian Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan. 2019.

17 European Commission. Italy draft national energy and climate plan. 29–30. 2019.

18 IEA. Renewables 2021 Analysis and forecasts to 2026. 2021.

19 Reuters. Italy clinches gas deal with Algeria to temper Russian reliance. Reuters. Available at: (2022).

20 ISPRA. Italian Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2019. 2021.

21 Government of Italy. Italian Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2020: National Inventory Report 2022. 2022.

22 IEA. Global EV Data Explorer. IEA. 2022.

23 World Bank. GDP per capita (current LCU). The World Bank. 2021.

24 Gazzetta Ufficiale Della Repubblica Italiana. Decreto Del Presidente Del Consiglio Dei Ministri 6 Aprille 2022. Riconoscimento degli incentivi per l’acquisto di veicoli non inquinanti. 2022.

25 See assumptions here:

26 Electric or hybrid vehicles with off-vehicle charging, powered by methane and hydrogen, and electricity and methane in the case of buses.

27 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available, thus we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.

Italyʼs current GHG emissions


Displayed values

By sector

  • Transport
  • Buildings
  • Power
  • Industry (energy use)
  • Other
  • Fugitive emissions
  • Industry (processes)
  • Agriculture
  • Waste
Energy (80%)⟵ LULUCF negative emissions

By gas

  • CO₂
  • CH₄
  • Other
  • N₂O

Sectors by gas

Industry (processes)

Energy system

Buildings (residential and commercial) is the largest energy consuming end-use sector in Italy accounting for an approximate 44% share of final energy demand in 2019, followed by transport (32%), industry (22%) and others (2%).11 In 2019, primary energy in Italy was mainly sourced from fossil gas (42%), oil (33%), renewable energy (20%) and coal (4%).12

Fossil gas contributed to around half of electricity generation in Italy in 2021, the share of which has been increasing in the recent years.12 In contrast, the share of coal has been declining, reaching less than 5% in 2021. Italy plans to phase out coal by 2025.12,13

Italy was the third-largest fossil fuel importer in the EU after Germany and the Netherlands in 2019, primarily because of its gas imports. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine – Russia being Italy’s primary supplier of natural gas – the country is now being forced to review its strategy. Italy has significant renewable energy resources which could be exploited to accelerate the transition from fossil fuels, though the initial response to the dependency on Russian gas has been focused on diversifying its gas suppliers.

While Italy has great potential for renewable energy generation. Hydropower and solar are currently its largest source of renewable electricity. Italy aims to install 52 GW of solar power and 19.3 GW of wind power by 2030 respectively, and the renewable share of electricity generation has been rising steadily in the last decade, reaching approximately 17% in 2019.12,13

Italy aims to spur decarbonisation in remaining sectors through an increased uptake of electric vehicles and modal shift in the transport sector, as well as buildings renovation and efficiency improvements.13,14

Targets and commitments

Economy-wide targets

Target type


NDC target

Based on Italy’s NECP:

  • 33% below 2005 levels for non-ETS sectors by 2030.
  • 43% below 2005 levels for ETS sectors by 2030. (EU-wide).13,25
  • Estimated implied target: 37% below 2005 levels by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).
  • Note that under the ‘Fit for 55′ EU-package proposal, Italy’s target is likely to increase.

Long-term target

  • As a member state of European Union, Italy should contribute to achieving EU’s climate neutrality goals by 2050.15 As of June 2022, Italy has not yet submitted a long-term strategy to the UNFCCC.

Sector coverage


Greenhouse gas coverage


Sectoral targets


  • Target of 30% (about 1.4 EJ) share of renewable energy in gross final consumption by 2030.
  • 43% reduction of primary energy consumption and 39.7% of final energy consumption by 2030.16
  • 33% share of renewable energy in heating and cooling by 2030.16


  • Increase the share of renewable energy to reach 22% in final energy consumption by 2030.16
  • Government fleet purchase mandate of alternative fuel vehicles of 50% by 2025 and 85% by 2030.16,26
  • 6 million electric vehicles by 2030.1


  • Government budget of €1 billion allocated each year from 2020 to 2022 for public building renovation (of which €40 million for public schools) to meet the minimum requirement of 3% (of floor area) by Energy Efficiency Directive (EED) standards.16


  • All EU ETS revenue exceeding €1,000 million per year, up to €100 million in 2020 and €150 million in 2021, will be allocated for energy efficiency measures in the industrial sector. Energy efficiency in the Industrial sector is projected to achieve savings of 1 Mtoe per year until 2030.17
  • The White Certificate and National Energy Efficiency Fund for overall energy efficiency can be used for improvements in industrial processes.11,17


  • Achieving predominantly decarbonised electricity sector by 2035 (G7 commitment, May 2022).
  • Coal phase-out by 2025.16
  • Achieve 72% of gross final electricity consumption from renewable energy sources by 2030.1,16
  • Increase the installed capacity of solar power and wind power to 52 GW and 19.3 GW by 2030 respectively.13
  • New electricity storage system instalment for at least 6 GW by 2030.16


  • “National code of good agricultural practices of controlling ammonia emissions”.17
  • Legislative Decree No. 152/2006 to limit burning of plant residues.17


  • Forestry management legislation (TUFF) legislation enacted in 2018 has potential to increase carbon sink by 40-45%.17
  • Total of €30 million budget allocated for reforestation from 2020-2021.17


  • Circular material use rate of 30% by 2030.1