Thailand resubmitted its 2015 NDC target in October 2020. It has an unconditional target of reducing GHG emissions by 20% below business-as-usual (BAU) levels by 2030. With international support, this target is increased from 20% to 25%. The target excludes its LULUCF sink.
The NDC is equivalent to 444 MtCO₂e/yr (unconditional), and 416 MtCO₂e/yr (conditional), equating to 2-8% below 2015 emission levels when excluding LULUCF. A 1.5°C compatible pathway would require domestic GHG emissions to peak immediately, and reach 222 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030, or a 42-55% reduction below 2015 levels, excluding LULUCF. Currently, BAU levels would see emissions of 555 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030.
Under the Paris Agreement, international support, including finance, technology transfer and capacity building will be needed for Thailand to close the emissions gap between its fair share and its domestic emissions pathway.
Long term pathway
Thailand released its Long-term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) in October 2021. The strategy sets out its ambition to move towards net zero as soon as possible within the second half of the century, and carbon neutrality by 2065.
A 1.5°C compatible pathway would require Thailand to reduce its GHG emissions by 81-86% by 2050 below 2015 levels when excluding LULUCF, or 66-85 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050. On the road to net zero, the country will need to balance its remaining GHG emissions through the use of carbon dioxide removal approaches such as land sinks.
Emissions remain in all sectors by 2050, with the exception of one scenario where the industrial process and energy sectors have negative emissions in the 2050s due to carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technology (BECCS – bioenergy and carbon capture and storage and CCS – carbon capture and storage).
Decarbonising the energy sector will drive down emission levels, as it accounts for 75% of total GHG emissions (mainly CO₂).