Between 2010-2019, the country’s transport emissions rose by 55%. Assessed 1.5°C scenarios show emissions decreasing immediately, except for the high energy demand, low carbon dioxide removal (CDR) scenario where emissions peak in 2030 followed by a sharp decline.

In 2017, the transport sector was dominated by oil-derived fuels, representing 96% of the transport energy mix, with the rest attributable to biofuels. Electric vehicles (EVs) are a key technology for replacing internal combustion engine vehicles and eliminating their large share of transport emissions. The assessed 1.5°C pathways show electricity representing a 1-6% share of the transport sector in 2030 and 12-40% by 2050, up from its almost 0% share in 2019. These shares likely underestimate the potential rate of an EV rollout, given their sharp rise in several markets globally. The Philippines Energy Plan (PEP) 2020-2040 aims for a 5% EV penetration rate for road transport by 2040.⁹ However, current policies are insufficient to meet this target.

¹ Climate Action Tracker. Philippines. November 2020 update. Climate Action Tracker. (2020).

² Ahmed, S. J. Philippines Power Sector Can Reach Resilience by 2021 COVID-19 Reveals Regulatory Weaknesses and the Need for Improved Incentives and Policies. (2020).

³ Department of Energy. Draft Philippine Energy Plan. (2020).

⁴ IEA. Philippines – Countries & Region. International Energy Agency. (2020).

⁵ FAO. FAOSTAT – Agriculture Total. (2019).

⁶ Plaza, A. B. Ditch NIMBY to fix Philippines’ municipal solid waste problem. Asian Development Bank. (2017).

⁷ Climate Transparency. Philippines Country Profile. (2020).

⁸ Department of Energy of the Philippines. National Renewable Energy Programme (NREP). in (2011).

⁹ Department of Energy. Philippine Energy Plan 2018 – 2040. (2020).

¹⁰ Department of Energy. Memorandum:Advisory on the Moratorium of Endorsements for Greenfield Coal-Fired Power Projects In Line with Improving the Sustainability of the Philippines’ Electric Power Industry. (2020).

¹¹ De Torres, A. Why the midstream and downstream natural gas industries development bills are climate-blind. (2021).

¹² Reynolds, S. No Guaranteed Future for Imported Gas in the Philippines. IEEFA (2021).

¹³ Simeon, L. M. Philippine transport sector to get $15 billion financing from ADB. PhilStar. (2021).

¹⁴ Fern. Would BECCS deliver negative emissions? (2021).

¹⁵ EndCoal. Global Coal Public Finance Tracker. Last updated: July 2020. (2020).

¹⁶ Calculations by Climate Action Tracker. The NDC provides a cumulative BAU for the period 2020-2030. It does not provide information for the absolute emissions levels for 2030. This is calculated from a stakeholder consultation session hosted by the Philippine Climate Change Commission in December 2020.

¹⁷ While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.

¹⁸ Calculated by the Climate Action Tracker, currently unpublished.