Transport emissions in the UAE increased more than threefold between 1990 and 2019, from 11 MtCO₂e to 36 MtCO₂e. Our analysis of 1.5°C compatible scenarios shows that transport emissions should decline to around 20-24 MtCO₂e in 2030, and 3-10 MtCO₂e in 2050, reaching net zero between 2055-2067.

The uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) and use of renewable fuels are two key measures to decarbonise the transport sector. In 1.5°C compatible scenarios, the share of electricity in transport energy demand increases from 0% in 2019 to 2-12% by 2030 and 43-62% by 2050. The share of hydrogen in the transport sector reaches up to 16% by 2030 and 25-57% by 2050. Similarly, the share of liquid biofuels reaches 1-3% by 2030 and 11-29% by 2050.

The UAE intends to reduce transport emissions by 1% by 2030.² To be 1.5°C aligned, transport emissions would need to be 33-45% lower than 2019 levels.

Many of the measures promoting EV uptake come from the Emirate of Dubai, where a range of initiatives exist aimed at expanding charging infrastructure.¹⁷ The UAE government could adopt measures to facilitate the phasing out of fossil fuel vehicles and policies that support EVs. For example, the low cost of fuel in the UAE makes it harder for EVs to compete in the market. Stronger support for EVs as well as greater investment in public transport would allow the UAE to align itself with Paris Agreement compatible pathways.

¹ Climate Action Tracker. CAT Climate Target Update Tracker: UAE December 2020 Update. (2020).

² Government of UAE. Second Nationally Determined Contribution of the United Arab Emirates. (2020).

³ “IEA. Climate-friendly cooling could cut years of greenhouse gas emissions and save trillions of dollars – News – IEA. (2020).”: https://www.iea.org/news/climate-friendly-cooling-could-cut-years-of-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-save-trillions-of-dollars

⁴ Climate Action Tracker. CAT Climate Target Update Tracker: UAE December 2020 Update. (2020).”:https://climateactiontracker.org/climate-target-update-tracker/uae/

⁵ IEA. United Arab Emirates data explorer. World Energy Balances. IEA. (2022).

⁶ International Renewable Energy Agency. Statistics Time Series. (2021).

⁷ Government of UAE. Second Nationally Determined Contribution of the United Arab Emirates. (2020).

⁸ Waheeb Alnaser, N., Mubarak Albuflasa, H. & Alnaser, W. E. The Transition in Solar and Wind Energy Use in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries (GCCC). Renewable Energy an Environmental Sustainability 7, (2022).

⁹ Government of UAE. UAE Energy Strategy 2050. (2017).

¹⁰ Power Technology News. Barakah nuclear plant’s first unit begins operations. (2021).

¹¹ Climate Action Tracker. CAT Climate Target Update Tracker: UAE November 2022 Update. (2022).

¹² Government of UAE. National Water and Energy Demand Management Programme. (2021).

¹³ Power Technology News. Barakah nuclear plant’s first unit begins operations. https://www.power-technology.com/news/barakah-plant-first-unit/ (2021).

¹⁴ EIU. UAE raises targets for sustainable energy in 2030. The Economist (2030).

¹⁵ European Commission. EDGAR – The Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research. EDGAR (2021).

¹⁶ ADNOC. Strategy. (2023).

¹⁷ Asna, M. et al. Analysis of an Optimal Planning Model for Electric Vehicle Fast-Charging Stations in Al Ain City, United Arab Emirates. IEEE Access 9, 73678–73694 (2021).

¹⁸ While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.

¹⁹ In some of the analysed pathways, the energy sector assumes already a certain amount of carbon dioxide removal technologies, in this case bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS).