The transport sector is responsible for about 30% of Tanzania’s CO₂ emissions (or around 4% of overall emissions incl. LULUCF).

1.5°C compatible pathways show an increase in electrification to between 6-21% by 2030, and 25-44% by 2050, from almost 0% in 2019. Tanzania could fully decarbonise the sector between 2047-2050. This would require policies to develop the transport sector around renewable-based electricity, among others.¹⁵

Tanzania is set to expand its bus rapid transit (BRT) network, develop non-motorised transport and invest in ‘low emission transport systems’ to lower its emissions.⁷ Its updated NDC lists transport as a priority sector for mitigation, with measures such as bus rapid transit (BRT) expansion, and establishment of non-motorised transport.¹ Tanzania has also embarked on a 2,561km railway project. 1,637km of this is electric, with 300km between Dar and Morogoro already finalised and being operationalised.¹⁷

¹ United Republic of Tanzania. Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). (Vice President’s Office, Union and Environment, 2021).

² United Republic of Tanzania. Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC). (2015).

³ IEA. Tanzania Country Profile. Key Energy Statistics. (2020).

⁴ Energy and Water Utilities Regulatory Authority. Electricity Infrastructure. (2021).

⁵ United Republic of Tanzania. National Energy Policy. (Ministry of Energy and Minerals, 2015).

⁶ United Republic of Tanzania. National Five Year Development Plan 2021/22 – 2025/26: Realising Competitiveness and Industrialisation for Human Development. (2021).

⁷ United Republic of Tanzania (URT). National Climate Change Response Strategy (2021-2026). (2021).

⁸ National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), T. National Climate Change Statistics Report. (2019).

⁹ United Republic of Tanzania. National Five Year Development Plan 2016/17-2020/21: Nurturing Industrialization for Economic Transformation and Human Development. (2016).

¹⁰ The United Republic of Tanzania. Nationally Determined Contribution. (2021).

¹¹ Kajubi, F. UK lauds Tanzania’s plans towards net zero carbon emission reduction. The Guardian (2021).

¹² Irene Garcia, Anna Leidreiter, Joachim Fünfgelt, Sixbert Mwanga & Msololo Onditi. Policy Roadmap for 100% Renewable Energy and Poverty Eradication in Tanzania. (2017).

¹³ United Republic of Tanzania. Voluntary National Review (VNR) 2019. (2019).

¹⁴ The Citizen. Tanzania starts exporting coal to European markets. The Citizen (2022).

¹⁵ IAP & NASAC. Decarbonisation of Transport in Africa: A Transport Planning Perspective Workshop Summary Report. (2022).

¹⁶ Dar Rapid Transit System Agency (DART). Dar Rapid Transit System. (2018).

¹⁷ Shirika la Reli Tanzania (TRC). Kuhusu SGR. Shirika la Reli Tanzania (2022).

¹⁸ See assumptions

¹⁹ Global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C tend to include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches, and often rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. The scenarios available at the time of this analysis focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology, and our downscaling methods do not yet take national BECCS potentials into account.