1.5°C compatible pathways
In its updated first NDC, submitted in 2021, Saudi Arabia states its intention to reduce up to 278 MtCO₂e annually (incl. LULUCF) by 2030 through contributions to economic diversification and adaptation measures that also entail mitigation co-benefits.1 We assume that the target is in relation to a business-as-usual scenario; however, the NDC’s formulation in that regard is unclear. Based on the Climate Action Tracker’s assumption, the target translates to an emissions level of 524–799 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF in 2030, or a change of -25 to +14% compared to 2015 levels.2 A 1.5°C compatible pathway for Saudi Arabia would see the country reducing its emissions by 51% by 2030 below 2015 levels, or 347 MtCO₂e/yr.
Considering the energy sector’s large share of Saudi Arabia’s overall emissions, a majority of emissions reductions will need to come from this sector followed by industrial processes and waste. Under current policies, the country’s total GHG emissions are projected to increase by 5% above 2015 levels to 738 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030.2
Long term pathway
The Saudi Arabian government announced a commitment to achieve net zero emissions by 2060 in October 2021 ahead of COP26. This is yet to be followed by an official communication.3 The government has not set the target in policy nor communicated key details, such as the scope of the target.
To be 1.5°C compatible, Saudi Arabia would need to reduce its GHG emissions by 86% below 2015 levels, when excluding the contribution of LULUCF sinks, to reach 96 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050. CO₂ emissions should be reduced by 92% below 2015 levels, reaching 46 MtCO₂/yr.20 The remaining emissions will need to be balanced through the deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches.21 The steep emissions reductions will require stringent and ambitious policies in sectors such as power, industry (including oil and gas), and transport.
1 Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Updated First Nationally Determined Contribution 2021 Submission to UNFCCC. (2021).
2 Climate Action Tracker. Climate Action Tracker. Climate Action Tracker (2022).
3 BBC News. Saudi Arabia commits to net zero emissions by 2060. (2021).
4 International Energy Agency. Energy data and statistics. (2021).
5 Alnatheer, O. The potential contribution of renewable energy to electricity supply in Saudi Arabia. Energy Policy 33, 2298–2312 (2005).
6 BP. Statistical Review of World Energy 2021. (2021).
7 KPMG. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Budget Report A review of the Saudi Arabia 2020 budget and recent economic developments (2019).
8 IRENA. Renewable Energy Statistics 2021. (2021).
9 General Authority for Statistics. Indicators of Renewable Energy in Saudi Arabia 2018. (2018).
10 Recharge News. We will be pioneering’: Saudi Arabia reveals 50% renewables goal by 2030, but is that realistic? (2021).
11 Climate Action Tracker. Country Analysis: Saudi Arabia September 2020 Update. (2020).
12 Balkan Green Energy News. Saudi Arabia to add 3.7 GW in solar power, achieves world’s lowest price. (2021).
13 Government of Saudi Arabia. The Intended Nationally Determined Contribution of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia under the UNFCCC. (2015).
14 Climate Transparency. Climate Transparency Report 2022 | Climate Transparency. (2022).
15 Bloomberg Green. Saudi Arabia to use 110 billion gas project for blue hydrogen. (2021).
16 TNO. 15 things you need to know about hydrogen. (2021).
17 Climate Transparency. Country Profile: Saudi Arabia. (2021).
18 Utilities Middle East. Saudi Arabia gets first EV charging stations. (2019).
19 Rose, M. Saudi Arabia to launch partial operation of Riyadh Metro by September 2021. Urban Transport News (2021).
20 In some of the analysed pathways, the energy sector assumes already a certain amount of carbon dioxide removal technologies, in this case bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS).
21 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.
Saudi Arabiaʼs total GHG emissions
excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
- 1.5°C compatible pathways
- Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
- Current policy projections
- 1.5°C emissions range
- Historical emissions
Energy system transformation
The biggest sources of GHG emissions in Saudi Arabia are fuel combustion in the energy sector (electricity generation, industry, and transport), fugitive emissions (e.g., from extraction of oil and gas), and industrial processes. Clear and stringent policies are crucial for the transformation of these sectors.
To be compatible with a 1.5°C pathway, the share of fossil fuels in the primary energy mix would need to decline from almost 100% now to 34–66% by 2050. All analysed 1.5°C pathways also show a significant reduction in total energy demand, resulting in an absolute decrease in unabated fossil fuel use of 75–83% below 2019 levels by 2050.
Saudi Arabia would need to set ambitious energy efficiency and renewable energy targets across different sub-sectors and implement clear and stringent policies to transform the energy sector.
Saudi Arabia is strongly committed to the development of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon capture and use (CCU) projects and its NDC specifically states the goal to build “the world’s largest carbon capture and use plant to capture and purify about 1500 tons of CO₂ a day for use in petrochemical plants”.13 For a country like Saudi Arabia whose economy is highly reliant on fossil fuels, betting on CCS could represent a risk of significant stranded assets, should this technology not become available at scale. CCS technologies also have negative impacts on sustainability in terms of increased water use, higher resource demands, and mining and production-related environmental impacts. Also, the relative cost trend between CCS in the power sector and renewables means that CCS in the power sector is increasingly unlikely to be able to ever compete with renewable energy. As a water scarce country with high renewable energy potential, Saudi Arabia would benefit from transitioning to a fully renewable energy-based system that avoids reliance on CCS.
Saudi Arabiaʼs primary energy mix
petajoule per year
- Negative emissions technologies via BECCS
- Unabated fossil
- Nuclear and/or fossil with CCS
- Renewables incl. biomass
Saudi Arabiaʼs total CO₂ emissions
excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
- 1.5°C compatible pathways
- 1.5°C emissions range
- Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
- Historical emissions
1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Saudi Arabia. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
Indicator | 2015 Reference year | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year | 702 | 646 | 347 295 to 386 | 169 128 to 176 | 96 78 to 104 | |
Relative to reference year in % | −51% −58 to −45% | −76% −82 to −75% | −86% −89 to −85% | |||
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr | 593 | 532 | 319 243 to 362 | 131 54 to 174 | 46 13 to 109 | 2062 |
Relative to reference year in % | −46% −59 to −39% | −78% −91 to −71% | −92% −98 to −82% |