Nigeria’s transport sector relies almost entirely on fossil fuels (as of 2019), which are highly subsidised by the government. Substituting fossil fuel subsidies for ones that promote low-carbon alternatives such as taking public transport would be a critical step towards decarbonising the transport sector. Such a process must be managed in a way that ensures a just transition for those who rely on the availability of affordable fuel.
Under 1.5°C compatible pathways, fossil fuels are either phased out or their share is drastically reduced by 2050, with demand met by biofuels, electricity, and/or hydrogen. By 2050, the transport sector’s electrification rate reaches 33-56%.
Nigeria has some emissions reduction plans in place for the transport sector. The 2019 National Action Plan to Reduce Short-lived Climate Pollutants includes measures such as removing buses which do not meet vehicle emission standards from the fleet. Nigeria’s updated NDC reiterates some of these measures and builds on targets for increased bus transit. In the Energy Transition Plan, the government includes a short-term target to increase biofuel blend rates by 2036, and a long-term target for 100% of vehicles on the market to be electric Vehicles (EVs) by 2060.
1 Federal Republic of Nigeria. Submission of an Interim Report of the Updated Nationally Determined Contribution. (2021).
Nigeriaʼs transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Unit
2040608010019902010203020502070
Historical emissions
SSP1 High CDR reliance
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
Low energy demand
1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Nigeria