Power sector in 2030
Compatibility with 1.5°C pathways require rapid decarbonisation of the power sector. This could be driven by almost doubling the share of renewable energy to 88-89% by 2030, a coal phase-out by 2029 and a gas phase-out by 2036-2040.
Following the amendment of the German Renewable Energy Law in December 2020, in April 2022 Minister for Economy and Climate, Robert Habeck, presented a package of proposals that constitute a significant improvement in the renewable energy framework– with a goal of increasing the share of renewables to 80% by 2030 and close to 100% by 2035. The proposed target also takes into consideration the increase in electricity demand driven by electrification of other sectors. Current permitting processes need to be simplified to support implementation of renewable energy projects and achievement of the new target.
Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
1.5°C compatible scenarios indicate that emissions intensity of electricity generation should decrease by at least 67% in comparison to 2017 and the sector be fully decarbonised by 2035. However, any remaining emissions after 2030 are relatively small due to a significant decrease in emissions intensity – by at least 88%. Starting in 2030, almost all electricity could be generated from renewable sources. While their share increases only modestly in the subsequent decades, in absolute terms installed capacity doubles due to increasing electricity demand. In the early 2040s, the power sector, through the use of BECCS, starts contributing negative emissions, with grid emissions intensity reaching 0-20 gCO₂/kWh.