Emissions intensity of the transport sector’s energy demand has remained at 72 g CO₂/MJ since 1990 while direct CO₂ emissions from the transport sector have increased 44% in the past 10 years (2009-2019). Emissions need to peak by 2025 or sooner, and decrease by up to 44% by 2030, and could reach zero emissions by 2050 following 1.5°C pathway.
The main fuel in the transport sector is petrol, with diesel representing 98% of the transport fuels in 2019. One 1.5°C scenario shows that hydrogen could provide up to 16% of the energy needed in the sector by 2030 and 65% by 2050 (SSP1 High CDR Reliance) and decarbonise the sector if produced from renewable energy. For example, green hydrogen can fuel boats, heavy vehicles, and rail transport. For other transport modes, electricity could provide around 13% of needed energy by 2050. These scenarios underestimate the potential for electric vehicles including cars, buses, two and three wheelers. Until recently, government support for electric vehicles was lacking in Viet Nam, while the private sector has pushed for EV exports and a rollout of charging stations.26 The government plans to reduce the excise tax and registration fees for battery powered electric cars from March 2022.27 Furthermore, the country is well positioned to become a metals suppliers for the EV battery producers of the region given its resources in nickel, cobalt, and other mineral ores.
Viet Nam would need to implement further policies to reduce emissions from the transport sector to reduce dependence on oil and incentivise the transition to electric vehicles, as well as support a modal switch to zero emissions transport.
Sustainable biofuels may also play a role, and could represent 3% of transport energy demand by 2050 in line with a 1.5°C pathway.
1 Global Gas Plant Tracker. Global Gas Plant Tracker – Global Energy Monitor. (2021).
2 Climate Action Tracker. Viet Nam. November 2020 update. Climate Action Tracker. (2020).
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13 MOIT. Vietnam National Energy Efficiency Program 2019-2030. (2019).
14 Viet Nam Government. Approval of the Revised National Power Development Master Plan for the 2011-2020 Period with the Vision to 2030 (translated by GIZ). (2016).
15 UN Climate Change Conference 2021. Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forests and Land Use – UN Climate Change Conference (COP26). (2021).
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20 Vu, T. Vietnam’s extraordinary rooftop solar success deals another blow to the remaining coal pipeline. IEEFA. (2021).
21 Viet Nam Government. Decision on mechanisms to promote the development of solar power projects in Viet Nam. (2020).
22 Baker McKenzie. Vietnam: October 2021 updates to the Draft PDP8. (2021).
23 Viet Nam Government. Draft Power Development Plan 8 (third draft, February 2021). (2021).
24 IEA. Viet Nam. International Energy Agency. (2021).
25 Energy Voice. Enterprize eyes green hydrogen’s potential to ‘supercharge’ Vietnam. Energy Voice. (2021).
26 Phi Nhat. Support policies for EVs mapped out to encourage Vietnamese private sector’s participation. Hanoi Times. (2021).
27 VietnamNet. Vietnam expects new wave of electric vehicles in 2022. VietnamNet. (2022).
28 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.
29 October 2021 draft Power Development Plan 8.
Viet Namʼs energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
- Natural gas
- Coal
- Oil and e-fuels
- Biofuel
- Biogas
- Biomass
- Hydrogen
- Electricity
- Heat
Viet Namʼs transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
- Historical emissions
- SSP1 High CDR reliance
- SSP1 Low CDR reliance
- High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Viet Nam
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Decarbonised transport sector by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Direct CO₂ emissions MtCO₂/yr | 42 | 23 to 27 | 17 to 22 | 0 to 19 | 2049 |
Relative to reference year in % | −44 to −35% | −59 to −48% | −100 to −53% |
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Share of electricity Percent | 0 | 1 | 4 to 7 | 11 to 12 |
Share of biofuels Percent | 1 | 2 to 3 | 3 to 5 | 4 to 15 |
Share of hydrogen Percent | 0 | 1 to 17 | 7 to 52 | 65 to 86 |